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The seven largest emerging market economies-China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey-constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, called EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. The authors provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. They report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.

Business Cycles --- Em7 --- Emerging Markets --- Externalshocks --- G7 --- Spillovers

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Europe is deeply integrated into global value chains and recent trade tensions raise the question of how European economies would be affected by the introduction of tariffs or other trade barriers. This paper estimates the impact of trade shocks and growth spillovers using value added measures to better gauge the associated costs across European countries.

Value added --- Tariff --- International economic relations. --- Economic aspects --- Economic aspects. --- Europe --- Europe. --- Foreign economic relations. --- Added value --- Manufacturing processes --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Ad valorem tariff --- Border taxes --- Customs (Tariff) --- Customs duties --- Duties --- Fees, Import --- Import controls --- Import fees --- Tariff on raw materials --- Commercial policy --- Indirect taxation --- Revenue --- Customs administration --- Favored nation clause --- Non-tariff trade barriers --- Reciprocity (Commerce) --- Council of Europe countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Globalization --- Globalization: General --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Externalities --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Public finance & taxation --- Global value chains --- Exports --- Tariffs --- Spillovers --- Trade balance --- International trade --- Taxes --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International finance --- Balance of trade --- United States

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The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Economic Theory --- Diseases: Contagious --- Industries: Automobile --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Automobiles --- Other Transportation Equipment --- Related Parts and Equipment --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Transport industries --- Labor supply --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Automobile industry --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Supply and demand --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Automobile industry and trade --- Slovak Republic

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The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.

Slovak Republic --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Economic Theory --- Diseases: Contagious --- Industries: Automobile --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Automobiles --- Other Transportation Equipment --- Related Parts and Equipment --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Transport industries --- Labor supply --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Automobile industry --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Supply and demand --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Automobile industry and trade

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This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions of governments using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model and a large data-set of advanced and developing economies. The methodology permits tracing the endogenous relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions while maintaining enough degrees of freedom to draw sharp inferences. The paper reports three major results. First, the fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions: the multipliers tend to be larger when fiscal positions are strong (i.e. when government debt and deficits are low) than weak. For instance, the long-run multiplier can be as large as unity when the fiscal position is strong, while it can be negative when the fiscal position is weak. Second, these effects are separate and distinct from the impact of the business cycle on the fiscal multiplier. Third, the state-dependent effects of the fiscal position on multipliers is attributable to two factors: an interest rate channel through which higher borrowing costs, due to investors' increased perception of credit risks when stimulus is implemented from a weak initial fiscal position, crowd out private investment; and a Ricardian channel through which households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments.

Debt markets --- Economic stabilization --- Emerging markets --- Finance and financial sector development --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Private sector development