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2024 (1)

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Dissertation
Evaluating the Future Resilience of the Natura 2000 Network: Impacts of Climate and Land Cover Changes on Grassland Habitats

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Abstract

Global biodiversity is declining rapidly, and Europe is no exception. The main causes are climate change and changes in land use, both induced by human activities. The Natura 2000 network is a crucial conservation tool for biodiversity within the European Union. It encompasses protected sites across the continent with exceptional flora, fauna and habitats. This thesis investigates the robustness of current Natura 2000 conservation targets under future environmental projections (SSP5-8.5 scenario), focusing on grassland habitats. We used joint species distribution models (JSDM) fitted by hierarchical species community modeling (Hmsc), to assess changes in the distribution of indicator species for ten grassland habitats. The status of these habitats was then defined in various PAs within the Natura 2000 network. The thesis aimed to assess the effects of climate and land use change, the future distribution of grassland species and the effectiveness of PAs for grassland habitats. Despite its conservation potential, the network may not mitigate current biodiversity loss and habitat degradation. The results point to significant changes in species distribution and habitat status by the end of the century. The study highlights that many sites risk failing to maintain a favorable conservation status if they do not take sufficient account of the impact of future environmental change. This research highlights the need to adopt adaptive management practices and integrate environmental change into conservation planning. It contributes to our understanding of biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change and could inform other conservation strategies for European grassland habitats.

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