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Dans cette histoire picturale, Ted raconte l'été 1979 dans son HLM de Hong Kong. Les images de ses souvenirs, représentés dans une stylisation visuelle à laquelle l'auteur est attaché et de façon bariolée, constituent le point de vue sur le monde d'un petit garçon.

Bande dessinée

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This paper investigates the macroeconomic policy challenges associated with a prospective continuation of international trade and financial integration over the next two decades, making use of a global macroeconomic model newly developed by the OECD. The analysis has several important policy implications. First, with the shares of non-OECD economies in world output, trade, and capital markets rising substantially, global economic developments would become much more dependent on developments in these economies than they used to be. Second, the sustainability of existing global current account imbalances will depend in part on the future build-up and composition of international assets and liabilities. While the imbalances could be sustainable for some time if economic integration continues at its current pace, a slowdown of the globalisation process would raise the likelihood of a disruptive adjustment in financial markets. Third, the increase in trade and financial linkages implies that macroeconomic shocks in a given country or region have a larger impact on other economies in the future than they do today. Policymakers in the OECD may have to act more promptly and more vigorously to economic 'shocks' in the non-OECD economies in order to limit the impact on OECD economies.

Economics

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This paper provides a summary of the OECD’s new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets.

Economics