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Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low correlation. However, recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. This increase has drawn on corn previously sold to other uses, as well as acreage devoted to other crops. The US RFS envisions a further boost of ethanol production to 15 billion gallons per year, which might be expected to further strengthen the linkages. We estimate that, in the presence of a binding RFS, the inherent volatility in the US coarse grains market will rise by about one-quarter. And the volatility of the US coarse grains price to supply side shocks in that market will rise by nearly one-half. Under a high oil price scenario, rather than the RFS binding, the binding constraint is likely to be the blend wall. With a binding blend wall, we see similar, although somewhat smaller, increases in market volatility. If both the RFS and the blend wall are on the verge of being binding, then our results suggest that US coarse grains price volatility in response to corn supply shocks would be 57% higher than in the non-binding case, and world price volatility would be boosted by 25%.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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This paper examines the poverty impacts of global merchandise trade reform by looking at a wide range of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Overall, the authors find that trade reform tends to reduce poverty primarily through the inclusion of agricultural components. The majority of developing country sample experiences small poverty increases from non-agricultural reforms. The authors explore the relative poverty-friendliness of agricultural trade reforms in detail, examining the differential impacts on real after-tax factor returns of agricultural versus non-agricultural reforms. This analysis is extended to the distribution of households by looking at stratum-specific poverty changes. The author's findings indicate that the more favorable impacts of agricultural reforms are driven by increased returns to peasant farm households' labor as well as higher returns for unskilled wage labor. Finally, the authors examine the commodity-specific poverty impacts of trade reform for this sample of countries. The authors find that liberalization of food grains and other processed foods represent the largest contributions to poverty reduction. More specifically, it is tariff reform in these commodity markets that dominates the poverty increasing impacts of wealthy country subsidy removal.

Access to Markets --- Agricultural Policy --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Commodity Prices --- Developing Countries --- Economic Policy --- Exporters --- Household Consumption --- Household Income --- Household Surveys --- Income Tax --- Inequality --- Labor Market --- Meat --- Political Economy --- Poverty and Trade --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy

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"Hertel and Zhai evaluate the impact of two key factor market distortions in China on rural-urban inequality and income distribution. They find that creation of a fully functioning land market has a significant impact on rural-urban inequality. This reform permits agricultural households to focus solely on the differential between farm and nonfarm returns to labor in determining whether to work on or off-farm. This gives rise to an additional 10 million people moving out of agriculture by 2007 and lends a significant boost to the incomes of those remaining in agriculture. This off-farm migration also contributes to a significant rise in rural-urban migration, thereby lowering urban wages, particularly for unskilled workers. As a consequence, rural-urban inequality declines significantly. The authors find that reform of the Hukou system has the most significant impact on aggregate economic activity, as well as income distribution. Whereas the land market reform primarily benefits the agricultural households, this reform's primary beneficiaries are the rural households currently sending temporary migrants to the city. By reducing the implicit tax on temporary migrants, Hukou reform boosts their welfare and contributes to increased rural-urban migration. The combined effect of both factor market reforms is to reduce the urban-rural income ratio dramatically, from 2.59 in 2007 under the authors' baseline scenario to 2.27. When viewed as a combined policy package, along with WTO accession, rather than increasing inequality in China, the combined impact of product and factor market reforms significantly reduces rural-urban income inequality. This is an important outcome in an economy currently experiencing historic levels of rural-urban inequality. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to evaluate the poverty impacts of trade policy reforms"--World Bank web site.

Labor market.

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This book explores the fundamental determinants of sustainability as seen through the lens of long term changes in agricultural land use and the associated implications for environmental and food security. Each chapter builds part of the global sustainability story by focusing on one driver, or underlying determinant, of land use change at global scale. It starts with key factors which have been influential in the past, such as growth in population, incomes and agricultural productivity, thereafter turning to new drivers such as biofuels, climate change and demand for environmental services. Specialized topics include food security outcomes, projections of future agricultural prices, greenhouse gas emissions, the role of globalization and market integration. The final chapter integrates all of these elements into a comprehensive analysis of food and environmental security in 2050. The book draws heavily on the emerging body of literature on these topics, summarizes key findings and organizes these within a unifying economic framework.

Environmental Sciences --- Earth & Environmental Sciences --- Environmental management. --- Agricultural economics. --- Environmental Management. --- Agricultural Economics. --- Monitoring/Environmental Analysis. --- Agrarian question --- Agribusiness --- Agricultural economics --- Agricultural production economics --- Agriculture --- Production economics, Agricultural --- Land use, Rural --- Environmental stewardship --- Stewardship, Environmental --- Environmental sciences --- Management --- Economic aspects --- Food security. --- Economic aspects. --- Food deserts --- Food insecurity --- Insecurity, Food --- Security, Food --- Human security --- Food supply --- Environmental monitoring. --- Biomonitoring (Ecology) --- Ecological monitoring --- Environmental quality --- Monitoring, Environmental --- Applied ecology --- Environmental engineering --- Pollution --- Measurement --- Monitoring