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Following the 15-year civil war that started in 1975, Lebanon's government began the difficult task of economic stabilization and confidence building, on the one hand, and postwar reconstruction and development, on the other. The government led the reconstruction effort by formulating programs that aimed to rapidly rehabilitate the country's severly damaged infrastructure in preparation for private-sector-led growth over the medium term. At the same time, Lebanon introduced an exchange-rate-based nominal anchor policy to stabilize expectations and cut inflation. This paper analyzes the government's progress with the policies adopted.
Economic policy and planning (general) --- Lebanon --- European Union --- dette publique --- finances publiques --- liban --- politique economique --- politique fiscale --- situation economique --- taux d'interet --- Reconstruction --- -Economic stabilization --- -Finance, Public --- -Fiscal policy --- -Interest rates --- -Debts, Public --- -330.05 --- 330.95692 --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Interest --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Currency question --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- openbare schuld --- openbare financien --- libanon --- economisch beleid --- fiscaal beleid --- economische toestand --- rentevoeten --- Government policy --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions --- -Statistics. --- Debts, Public --- Economic stabilization --- Fiscal policy --- Interest rates --- 330.05 --- E.U. --- Public finances --- Liban --- République libanaise --- Libanon --- Lubnān --- Libanan --- Livan --- Mont-Liban (Turkey : Mutaṣarrifīyah) --- Jabal Lubnān (Turkey : Mutaṣarrifīyah) --- Levanon --- Líbano --- Livanos --- Grand Lebanon --- Grand Liban --- Lebanese Republic --- Jumhūrīyah al Lubnānīyah --- Jumhouriya al-Lubnaniya --- Republic of Lebanon --- لبنان --- جمهورية اللبنانية --- Ліван --- Ліванская Рэспубліка --- Livanskai︠a︡ Rėspublika --- Ливан --- Република Ливан --- Republika Livan --- Λίβανος --- Δημοκρατία του Λιβάνου --- Dēmokratia tou Livanou --- Jumhūrīyyah al-Lubnānīyyah --- 레바논 --- לבנון --- רפובליקה הלבנונית --- Republiḳah ha-Levanonit --- Либан --- Либанска Република --- Libanska Republika --- レバノン --- Rebanon --- レバノン共和国 --- Rebanon Kyōwakoku --- Ливанская Республика --- Республіка Ліван --- Respublika Livan --- Ліванська Республика --- Livansʹka Respublyka --- Levonen --- 黎巴嫩 --- Libanen --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Trade: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Finance --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Revenue administration --- Expenditure --- Government debt management --- Financial institutions --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Government securities --- Revenue --- Expenditures, Public --- Banks and banking
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This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the exception and that the slowdown in 2000-2001 largely followed patterns seen in the past. The paper also identifies the international business cycle with an asymptotic dynamic factor model. Two global factors explain roughly 80 percent of the variance in G-7 output gaps at business cycle frequencies. The factor model decomposes the "common part" of national output fluctuations into two factors, one capturing the average G-7 cycle and one that corrects for phase and amplitude differences. We also found some evidence supporting the hypothesis that global shocks were the main force behind the slowdown in 2000-2001.
Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Business cycles --- Output gap --- Factor models --- Production --- Econometric analysis --- Economic theory --- Econometric models --- United States
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This paper analyzes the recent behavior of real exchange rates, the trade balance and the net foreign asset position of the United States in an intertemporal optimizing model of the world economy that incorporates heterogeneity across countries and imperfect international capital and good markets. While the model successfully tracks the dynamics of trade balances and net foreign assets it generates too much consumption smoothing and excessively volatile relative prices. Resolving these inadequacies simultaneously is difficult as the elasticity of substitution between tradables and nontradables affects in opposite ways the degree of consumption smoothing and the volatility of relative prices.
Banks and Banking --- Consumption --- Currency --- Economics --- Exports and Imports --- External position --- Finance --- Financial services --- Foreign assets --- Foreign currency exposure --- Foreign exchange market --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Government and the Monetary System --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International economics --- International Investment --- Investments, Foreign --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- National accounts --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Payment Systems --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Regimes --- Saving --- Standards --- Wealth --- United States
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Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1992, several low-income countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accumulated substantial external debt in a short time span, about half of which is owed to multilateral financial institutions. Three factors contributed to the current debt burden. First, the initial years of transition brought large systemic economic disruptions, loss of transfers from the center and collapse of trade relations among Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) countries, and negative terms of trade shocks. Second, fiscal and other reforms, and consequently, growth revival, took longer than expected. Third, overoptimism by multilaterals contributed to the high debt levels. If external financial assistance, which was needed because of high social costs of the transition, had come in the form of grants in the first two or three years of the transition, the debt burden would have been lower and sustainable.
Debts, External --- Debts, External. --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- External debt --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Current account imbalances --- Balance of payments --- United States
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In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.
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"Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates have declined in Asia. Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia explores the relevance to several Asian economies of the diagnosis known as "secular stagnation." Leading experts discuss the fiscal and monetary policy challenges of reviving growth without generating domestic financial imbalances. The essays on innovation, demographics, spillovers, and various policy proposals are accompanied by case studies focusing on Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Indonesia"--
Economic development --- Business cycles --- Stagnation (Economics) --- Asia --- Economic conditions --- E-books --- Economic stagnation --- Stationary state (Economics) --- Steady-state economics --- Economics --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Asian and Pacific Council countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- Economic conditions. Economic development
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This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of the G-7 countries. We then evaluate the role played by credit market shocks using a series of VAR models. Our findings suggest that these shocks have been influential in driving global activity during the latest global recession. Credit shocks originating in the United States also have a significant impact on the evolution of world growth during global recessions.
Credit. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Borrowing --- Finance --- Money --- Loans --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary economics --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Credit --- Productivity --- Business cycles --- Vector autoregression --- Industrial productivity --- Prices --- United States
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