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Impact of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors on the structure of government debt in emerging market countries
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ISBN: 1451915160 1451998384 9786612841569 1282841564 1451870639 1462310389 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/205 Publisher: [Washington, District of Columbia] : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.


Book
Effects of globalization on labor's share in national income
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451865546 1462306403 145191007X 9786613823625 1452707758 1283437724 Year: 2006 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund,

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The past two decades have seen a decline in labor's share of national income in several industrial countries. This paper analyzes the role of three factors in explaining movements in labor's share--factor-biased technological progress, openness to trade, and changes in employment protection--using a panel of 18 industrial countries over 1960-2000. Since most studies suggest that globalization and rapid technological progress (associated with accelerated information technology development) began in the mid-1980s, the sample is split in 1985 into preglobalization/pre-IT revolution and postglobalization/post-IT revolution eras. The results suggest that the decline in labor's share during the past few decades in the OECD member countries may have been largely an equilibrium, rather than a cyclical, phenomenon, as the distribution of national income between labor and capital adjusted to capital-augmenting technological progress and a more globalized world economy.

Keywords

National income --- Foreign trade and employment --- Wages and labor productivity --- Employees --- Wages --- Wage bargaining --- Globalization. --- Econometric models. --- Effect of technological innovations on --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- Compensation --- Departmental salaries --- Earnings --- Pay --- Remuneration --- Salaries --- Wage-fund --- Wage rates --- Working class --- Laborers --- Personnel --- Workers --- Annual improvement factor --- Labor productivity and wages --- Employment and foreign trade --- Labor market --- Net national product --- Effect of international trade on --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Collective bargaining --- Income --- Labor costs --- Compensation management --- Cost and standard of living --- Prices --- Persons --- Industrial relations --- Personnel management --- Industrial engineering --- Labor productivity --- Productivity bargaining --- Commerce --- International trade --- Labor supply --- Investments, Foreign, and employment --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Labor Economics: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Contracts --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor share --- Employment protection --- Labor economics --- Economic theory --- Manpower policy --- United States


Book
Government debt issuance in the euro area : the impact of the financial crisis.
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Year: 2011 Publisher: S.l. IMF

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This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007–09, we find evidence of a shift away from precrisis standards of best funding practices—competitive auctions of debt instruments with a fixed coupon, long maturity and local currency denomination (DLTF). Exploiting the crosscountry panel data dimension of the data, we conclude that the crisis and related changes in the macroeconomic environment and investor sentiment can account for a significant proportion of the deviation. The negative effect of the crisis on DLTF debt issuance was especially pronounced in high deficit and high debt euro area countries, and has forced governments to assume additional risk.

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Book
First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1498366988 1498310680 1484392698 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.


Book
Does procyclical fiscal policy reinforce incentives to dollarize sovereign debt?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462324460 1455287881 128284640X 9786612846403 1455201790 Year: 2010 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores the link between the cyclical patterns of macroeconomic and policy variables and the currency composition of domestic sovereign debt in emerging market countries. The empirical analysis is anchored in an equilibrium model, in which the dollarization of sovereign debt arises as a result of the optimal portfolio choices by risk-averse investors, and of a sovereign debt manager who takes fiscal policy as given. The model predicts that in countries where the exchange rate is countercyclical (i.e., the exchange rate depreciates during recessions), a more procyclical fiscal policy (i.e., expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times) would lead, on average, to a more dollarized domestic sovereign debt. The empirical analysis using the Jeanne-Guscina EM Debt database (2006) on the currency structure of the central government debt in 22 emerging market countries over 1980 - 2005, supports these predictions.


Book
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484329260 1484329228 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.


Book
Government debt in emerging market countries : a new data set
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1451863586 1462354858 145190892X 9786613827142 1452740054 1283514699 Year: 2006 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept.,

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This paper presents a new database on government debt in 19 emerging market countries since 1980. The data set focuses on the structure of debt in terms of jurisdiction of insurance, maturity, currency composition and indexation. The paper presents stylized facts on debt structures and preliminary evidence on their determinants. We observe substantial crosscountry variation in the structure of domestic debt and find it to be associated with countries' record of monetary stability.

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