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Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.
Debts, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric models. --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions --- Politics and government. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Government policy --- Emerging nations --- Fourth World --- Global South --- LDC's --- Least developed countries --- Less developed countries --- Newly industrialized countries --- Newly industrializing countries --- NICs (Newly industrialized countries) --- Third World --- Underdeveloped areas --- Underdeveloped countries --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Domestic debt --- Foreign currency debt --- Currencies --- Securities markets --- Debts, External --- Money --- Capital market --- Argentina
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The past two decades have seen a decline in labor's share of national income in several industrial countries. This paper analyzes the role of three factors in explaining movements in labor's share--factor-biased technological progress, openness to trade, and changes in employment protection--using a panel of 18 industrial countries over 1960-2000. Since most studies suggest that globalization and rapid technological progress (associated with accelerated information technology development) began in the mid-1980s, the sample is split in 1985 into preglobalization/pre-IT revolution and postglobalization/post-IT revolution eras. The results suggest that the decline in labor's share during the past few decades in the OECD member countries may have been largely an equilibrium, rather than a cyclical, phenomenon, as the distribution of national income between labor and capital adjusted to capital-augmenting technological progress and a more globalized world economy.
National income --- Foreign trade and employment --- Wages and labor productivity --- Employees --- Wages --- Wage bargaining --- Globalization. --- Econometric models. --- Effect of technological innovations on --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- Compensation --- Departmental salaries --- Earnings --- Pay --- Remuneration --- Salaries --- Wage-fund --- Wage rates --- Working class --- Laborers --- Personnel --- Workers --- Annual improvement factor --- Labor productivity and wages --- Employment and foreign trade --- Labor market --- Net national product --- Effect of international trade on --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Collective bargaining --- Income --- Labor costs --- Compensation management --- Cost and standard of living --- Prices --- Persons --- Industrial relations --- Personnel management --- Industrial engineering --- Labor productivity --- Productivity bargaining --- Commerce --- International trade --- Labor supply --- Investments, Foreign, and employment --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Labor Economics: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Contracts --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor share --- Employment protection --- Labor economics --- Economic theory --- Manpower policy --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007–09, we find evidence of a shift away from precrisis standards of best funding practices—competitive auctions of debt instruments with a fixed coupon, long maturity and local currency denomination (DLTF). Exploiting the crosscountry panel data dimension of the data, we conclude that the crisis and related changes in the macroeconomic environment and investor sentiment can account for a significant proportion of the deviation. The negative effect of the crisis on DLTF debt issuance was especially pronounced in high deficit and high debt euro area countries, and has forced governments to assume additional risk.
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International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.
Bonds --- International economic relations. --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Bond issues --- Debentures --- Negotiable instruments --- Securities --- Debts, Public --- Stocks --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International Financial Markets --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- International bonds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Currencies --- Debt sustainability --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Money --- External debt --- Financial services industry --- Debts, External --- United States
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This paper explores the link between the cyclical patterns of macroeconomic and policy variables and the currency composition of domestic sovereign debt in emerging market countries. The empirical analysis is anchored in an equilibrium model, in which the dollarization of sovereign debt arises as a result of the optimal portfolio choices by risk-averse investors, and of a sovereign debt manager who takes fiscal policy as given. The model predicts that in countries where the exchange rate is countercyclical (i.e., the exchange rate depreciates during recessions), a more procyclical fiscal policy (i.e., expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times) would lead, on average, to a more dollarized domestic sovereign debt. The empirical analysis using the Jeanne-Guscina EM Debt database (2006) on the currency structure of the central government debt in 22 emerging market countries over 1980 - 2005, supports these predictions.
Fiscal policy --- Dollarization. --- Debts, Public --- Econometric models. --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Monetary policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Currencies --- Exchange rates --- Domestic debt --- Money --- Costa Rica
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Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Mathematical models --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Debt sustainability --- Public debt --- Credit ratings --- Yield curve --- Bonds --- External debt --- Money --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Interest rates --- Ukraine
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This paper presents a new database on government debt in 19 emerging market countries since 1980. The data set focuses on the structure of debt in terms of jurisdiction of insurance, maturity, currency composition and indexation. The paper presents stylized facts on debt structures and preliminary evidence on their determinants. We observe substantial crosscountry variation in the structure of domestic debt and find it to be associated with countries' record of monetary stability.
Debt -- Econometric models. --- Debts, Public -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, Public --- Debt --- Econometric models. --- Indebtedness --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Finance --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Domestic debt --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Currencies --- Financial services industry --- Prices --- Money --- Mexico
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This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?.
Purchasing power parity. --- Education spending --- Education --- Education: General --- Equity and social spending --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Health care spending --- Health economics --- Health --- Health: General --- Inclusive growth --- Middle East and Central Asia --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Social protection spending --- Saudi Arabia
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This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?.
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This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?.
Purchasing power parity. --- Social policy. --- Education spending --- Education --- Education: General --- Equity and social spending --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Health care spending --- Health economics --- Health --- Health: General --- Inclusive growth --- Middle East and Central Asia --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Social protection spending --- Saudi Arabia
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