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Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on “earnings per share” (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Investment management --- Business enterprises -- Finance. --- Business forecasting. --- Finance. --- Economics, Mathematical. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Finance, general. --- Quantitative Finance. --- Investment analysis. --- Analysis of investments --- Analysis of securities --- Security analysis --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic forecasting --- Forecasting --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Economics, Mathematical . --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- Methodology
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"This book blends two important topics: 1) An interesting history of research on economic growth and business cycles from the 1900's to today, and 2) A review and application of many of the newest econometric techniques to forecasting economic growth and stock prices. The integration of these two topics produce a volume that should be interesting and useful for both academics and practitioners in the fields of economics and finance." -Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, NYU "John Guerard should be congratulated for writing an authoritative book on business cycles and the use of cyclical indicators in their historical perspectives. It covers the contributions of giants of the field including those by Wesley Mitchell, Arthur Burns, Geoffrey Moore, and Victor Zarnowitz, highlighting the statistical aspects of the issues involved. The book will specifically be useful for economic analysts and practitioners who are in the business of tracking the economy in real time." -Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy, Mgt., & Behavior, University at Albany: SUNY In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles. John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.
Macroeconomics --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Finance --- History --- financieel management --- geschiedenis --- macro-economie --- sociale interventies --- econometrie --- Business cycles --- Economic forecasting --- Economic indicators
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"Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz was a seminal development transforming the field of financial investment from an art to a science. This important Handbook provides investors with an indispensable understanding of the rich developments in the practical application of the Markowitz techniques to portfolio construction." --Burton G. Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street "Harry Markowitz revolutionized investment management more than a half-century ago by presenting the first rigorous method for selecting ‘optimal’ portfolios. This Handbook is an invaluable collection that encapsulates subsequent research and practical advances in portfolio optimization. Today, some variant of Markowitz’ formulation is followed by the vast majority of sophisticated investment managers while various related concepts such as the ‘Sharpe Ratio’ are widely employed to judge performance. Included herein are chapters by many of the most notable scholars that have added to Markowitz’ original formulation. Some chapters present particular refinements that account for complexities introduced by transaction costs, multiple periods, fat-tailed return distributions, higher moments (such as skewness), multiple risk factors, and recalcitrant data. Other chapters illustrate Markowitz-like techniques in specific applications such as hedge funds, pension funds, and real estate. Every professional investment manager is certain to find chapters with immediate application to his or her particular problem of the moment. It will be, I predict, one of the most used reference volumes in the investment management industry." --Richard Roll, Japan Alumni Chair in Finance, UCLA Anderson School of Management "Before Markowitz, ‘finance’ referred to financial accounting. But he showed us how to quantify uncertainty. The papers in this book demonstrate how far modern finance has come since he invented it." --Jack Treynor, President, Treynor Capital Management, and author of Treynor on Institutional Investing.
Business -- Management. --- Portfolio management -- Handbooks, manuals, etc. --- Portfolio management. --- Finance --- Investment & Speculation --- Finance - General --- Business & Economics --- Investment analysis. --- Investments. --- Stocks. --- Analysis of investments --- Analysis of securities --- Security analysis --- Common shares --- Common stocks --- Equities --- Equity capital --- Equity financing --- Shares of stock --- Stock issues --- Stock offerings --- Stock trading --- Trading, Stock --- Investment management --- Investing --- Portfolio --- Finance. --- Economics, Mathematical. --- Macroeconomics. --- Finance, general. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Quantitative Finance. --- Investment analysis --- Investments --- Securities --- Disinvestment --- Loans --- Saving and investment --- Speculation --- Bonds --- Corporations --- Going public (Securities) --- Stock repurchasing --- Stockholders --- Economics --- Funding --- Funds --- Currency question --- Economics, Mathematical . --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- Methodology --- Social sciences --- Financial Economics. --- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. --- Mathematics in Business, Economics and Finance. --- Mathematics.
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Finance --- Business management --- management --- financiën
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This textbook presents a comprehensive treatment of the legal arrangement of the corporation, the instruments and institutions through which capital can be raised, the management of the flow of funds through the individual firm, and the methods of dividing the risks and returns among the various contributors of funds. Now in its second edition, the book covers a wide range of topics in corporate finance, from time series modeling and regression analysis to multi-factor risk models and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Guerard, Gultekin and Saxena build significantly on the first edition of the text, but retain the core chapters on cornerstone topics such as mergers and acquisitions, regulatory environments, bankruptcy and various other foundational concepts of corporate finance. New to the second edition are examinations of APT portfolio selection and time series modeling and forecasting through SAS, SCA and OxMetrics programming, FactSet fundamental data templates. This is intended to be a graduate-level textbook, and could be used as a primary text in upper level MBA and Financial Engineering courses, as well as a supplementary text for graduate courses in financial data analysis and financial investments.
Accounting. --- Risk management. --- Economics, Mathematical . --- Financial Accounting. --- Risk Management. --- Quantitative Finance. --- Economics --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- Insurance --- Management --- Accountancy --- Business enterprises --- Commerce --- Commercial accounting --- Finance --- Financial accounting --- Business --- Bookkeeping --- Methodology --- Accounting --- Corporations --- Finance. --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate finance --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities)
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Business cycles --- Economic forecasting --- Economic indicators
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"Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz was a seminal development transforming the field of financial investment from an art to a science. This important Handbook provides investors with an indispensable understanding of the rich developments in the practical application of the Markowitz techniques to portfolio construction." --Burton G. Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street "Harry Markowitz revolutionized investment management more than a half-century ago by presenting the first rigorous method for selecting optimal' portfolios. This Handbook is an invaluable collection that encapsulates subsequent research and practical advances in portfolio optimization. Today, some variant of Markowitz' formulation is followed by the vast majority of sophisticated investment managers while various related concepts such as the Sharpe Ratio' are widely employed to judge performance. Included herein are chapters by many of the most notable scholars that have added to Markowitz' original formulation. Some chapters present particular refinements that account for complexities introduced by transaction costs, multiple periods, fat-tailed return distributions, higher moments (such as skewness), multiple risk factors, and recalcitrant data. Other chapters illustrate Markowitz-like techniques in specific applications such as hedge funds, pension funds, and real estate. Every professional investment manager is certain to find chapters with immediate application to his or her particular problem of the moment. It will be, I predict, one of the most used reference volumes in the investment management industry." --Richard Roll, Japan Alumni Chair in Finance, UCLA Anderson School of Management "Before Markowitz, finance' referred to financial accounting. But he showed us how to quantify uncertainty. The papers in this book demonstrate how far modern finance has come since he invented it." --Jack Treynor, President, Treynor Capital Management, and author of Treynor on Institutional Investing
Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Economics --- Mathematics --- kennis --- financieel management --- macro-economie --- sociale interventies --- financiën --- wiskunde
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Choose statistically significant stock selection models using SAS® Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS®: Financial Modeling Techniques for Optimization is an introduction to using SAS to choose statistically significant stock selection models, create mean-variance efficient portfolios, and aggressively invest to maximize the geometric mean. Based on the pioneering portfolio selection techniques of Harry Markowitz and others, this book shows that maximizing the geometric mean maximizes the utility of final wealth. The authors draw on decades of experience as teachers and practitioners of financial modeling to bridge the gap between theory and application. Using real-world data, the book illustrates the concept of risk-return analysis and explains why intelligent investors prefer stocks over bonds. The authors first explain how to build expected return models based on expected earnings data, valuation ratios, and past stock price performance using PROC ROBUSTREG. They then show how to construct and manage portfolios by combining the expected return and risk models. Finally, readers learn how to perform hypothesis testing using Bayesian methods to add confidence when data mining from large financial databases.
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