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The measurement of the efficiency of public education expenditure using parametric and non-parametric methods has proven challenging. This paper seeks to overcome the difficulties of earlier studies by using a hybrid approach to measure the efficiency of secondary education spending in emerging and developing economies. The approach accounts for the impact of the level of development on education outcomes by constructing different efficiency frontiers for lower- and higher-income economies. We find evidence of large potential gains in enrollment rates by improving efficiency. These are largest in lower-income economies, especially in Africa. Reallocating expenditure to reduce student-to-teacher ratios (where these are high) and improving the quality of institutions (as measured by the "governance effectiveness" indicator in the World bank's Governance Indicators database) could help improve the efficiency of education spending. Easing the access to education facilities and reducing income inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) could also help improve efficiency.
Education --- School finance --- Schools --- Finance. --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Health Behavior --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Public Health --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Education spending --- Expenditure efficiency --- Expenditure --- Income --- National accounts --- Expenditures, Public --- United Arab Emirates
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This paper investigates the impact of institutional quality on public investment levels over the period 1984-2008. Moreover, it studies how the volatility of public investment and the quality of infrastructure are affected by institutional quality, and explores the contribution of other critical factors. The findings suggest an inverse relationship between public investment levels and institutional quality, supporting the idea that governments use public investment as a vehicle for rent-seeking or to compensate for the fall in private investment due to the poor business environment. In addition, aid flows, revenues and abundance of natural resources contribute positively to the level of capital spending. The author also finds that high volatility of public investment is associated with a lower quality of governance. An increase in revenues is associated with a reduction in the volatility of capital spending, suggesting that proper macroeconomic management smoothes the investment cycle. Finally, the paper provides some tentative evidence of a positive relationship between institutional quality and the quality of infrastructure.
Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Governance --- Institutions --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non Bank Financial Institutions --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Investment --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics
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This paper investigates the impact of institutional quality on public investment levels over the period 1984-2008. Moreover, it studies how the volatility of public investment and the quality of infrastructure are affected by institutional quality, and explores the contribution of other critical factors. The findings suggest an inverse relationship between public investment levels and institutional quality, supporting the idea that governments use public investment as a vehicle for rent-seeking or to compensate for the fall in private investment due to the poor business environment. In addition, aid flows, revenues and abundance of natural resources contribute positively to the level of capital spending. The author also finds that high volatility of public investment is associated with a lower quality of governance. An increase in revenues is associated with a reduction in the volatility of capital spending, suggesting that proper macroeconomic management smoothes the investment cycle. Finally, the paper provides some tentative evidence of a positive relationship between institutional quality and the quality of infrastructure.
Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Governance --- Institutions --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non Bank Financial Institutions --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Investment --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics
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This paper aims to identify the nexus between the excess of liquidity in the United States and commodity prices over the 1983-2006 period. In particular, it assesses whether commodity prices react more powerfully than consumer goods' prices to changes in real money balances. Within a cointegrated vector autoregressive framework, the author investigates whether consumer prices and commodity prices react to excess liquidity, and if the different price elasticities of supply for goods and commodities allow for differences in the dynamic paths of price adjustment to a liquidity shock. The results show a positive relationship between real money and real commodity prices and provide empirical evidence for a stronger response of commodity prices with respect to consumer goods' prices. This could imply that, if the magnitude of the reaction is due the fact that consumer goods' prices are slower to react, then their long-run value can be predicted with the help of commodity prices. The findings support the view that the latter should be considered as a valid monetary indicator.
Cointegration --- Commodities --- Commodity prices --- E-Business --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Inflation --- International Economics & Trade --- Markets and Market Access --- Money
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The linearity of the relationship between income inequality and economic development has been long questioned. While theory provides arguments for which the shape of relationship may be positive for low levels of inequality and negative for high ones, most of the empirical literature assumes a linear specification finding conflicting results. Employing an innovative empirical approach robust to endogeneity, we find pervasive evidence of nonlinearities. In particular, similar to the debt overhang literature, we identify an inequality overhang level in that the slope of the relationship between income inequality and economic development switches from positive to negative at a net Gini of about 27 percent. We also find that in an environment characterized by widespread financial inclusion and high income concentration, rising income inequality has a larger negative impact on economic development because banks may curtail credit to customers at the lower end of the income distribution. On the positive side, a sufficiently high female labor participation can act as a shock absorber reducing such negative impact, possibly through a more efficient allocation of resources.
Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Mathematical models --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Women''s Studies' --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labor Economics: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Finance --- Income inequality --- Labor --- Personal income --- Women --- Financial inclusion --- National accounts --- Gender --- Financial markets --- Income distribution --- Labor economics --- Income --- Financial services industry --- Argentina --- Income economics --- Women & girls --- Women's Studies
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A well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism is critical for monetary policy. As the Dominican Republic recently adopted an inflation targeting regime, it is even more relevant to guarantee that changes in the monetary policy rates are quickly and fully reflected in retail rates, to eventually influence aggregate demand and inflation. This paper estimates the interest rate pass-through of the monetary policy rate to retail rates and explores asymmetries in the adjustment. We find evidence of complete pass-through to retail rates, confirming the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. However, our results also suggest a faster pass-through to lending rates than to deposit rates and asymmetric adjustments of short-term rates, as deposit rates respond faster to policy rate cuts and lending rates respond faster to policy rate hikes. Measures to enhance competition in the financial system could help to achieve a symmetric adjustment of retail rates.
Banks and Banking --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Banking --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Central bank policy rate --- Deposit rates --- Interbank rates --- Loans --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Reserve requirements --- Monetary policy --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Dominican Republic
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This paper investigates the determinants of primary school enrollment, attendance and child labor in Bolivia from 1999 to 2007. The analysis also aims at identifying the substitution and complementary relationships between schooling and working. Although enrollment rates show a significant improvement, lack of attendance remains an issue. The empirical results reveal that the increase in enrollment is led by indigenous children and those living in urban areas. Moreover, contrary to common belief, being extremely poor and indigenous are the main determinants of school attendance. Although extremely poor children increased their school attendance, they were not able to reduce child labor. However, for indigenous children school attendance and child labor were substitutes, increasing schooling and reducing child labor.
Child labor --- Children and Youth --- Education --- Education For All --- Latin America --- Primary Education --- Social Protections and Labor --- Street Children --- Youth and Governance --- Bolivia
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We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks and Banking --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Financial Crises --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Prices --- Public debt --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary policy --- Quasi-fiscal operations --- Central banks --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Banks and banking, Central --- Brazil
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We analyze the impact of monetary policy on consumer spending using credit card data. Because of their high frequency, these data improve identification and allow for a precise characterization of the transmission lags. We find that shocks to short-term interest rates affect spending much more rapidly than shocks to longer-term interest rates. We also detect significant asymmetries. While interest rate rises are contractionary, interest rate cuts are unable to lift spending. Finally, by exploiting the disaggregation of credit card data, we uncover considerable heterogeneity in the effects of monetary policy across spending categories and a stronger impact on higher-income users.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Consumer credit --- Money --- Asset prices --- Prices --- Monetary tightening --- Monetary policy --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Negative interest rates --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Interest rates --- Germany
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The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation statistics take time to reflect these changes in the weights of the CPI consumption basket. Using credit card data for the UK and Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and we quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official-weight) index suggests and a lower inflation thereafter. We also show that weights can differ among age groups as well as between in-person and online spenders. These differences affect the purchasing power of the population heterogeneously. We conclude that CPI inflation indexes based on frequently updated weights can provide useful inputs to assess changes in the cost of living and, if shifts in consumption patterns prove persistent, determine the need to introduce new official weights and inform monetary policy.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Diseases: Contagious --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Health Behavior --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Monetary economics --- Prices --- Consumer price indexes --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Consumer credit --- Money --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Price indexes --- Communicable diseases --- Germany
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