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Political violence threatens the lives of U.S. soldiers and the stability of U.S. allies throughout the world. This report examines the threat of political violence in the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and the best means of reducing that threat. It assesses sources of discontent, common reasons for anti-regime politicization, potential triggers of violence, and the influence of foreign powers. The report then describes the strategies that regimes in the area have used to interfere with political organization and to counter violence in general. The report concludes by noting implications of political violence for both the United States and its allies in the Gulf, and by assessing the impact of various measures that could reduce violence: enacting political and economic reforms in the Gulf; changing the U.S. presence in the region through new basing and operational approaches; increasing a European role in Gulf security; coercing foreign powers that contribute to violence; strengthening the U.S.-Gulf partnership; and improving military-to-military ties.

Political violence --- Political stability --- Destabilization (Political science) --- Political instability --- Stability, Political --- Consensus (Social sciences) --- Legitimacy of governments --- Violence --- Political crimes and offenses --- Terrorism

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In January 2003, RAND called together a group of renowned experts with knowledge in the fields of Islamic law, constitution writing, and democracy, and with specific country and regional expertise. Keeping in mind the realities of Afghanistan's current situation and drawing from the experiences of other countries, the group identified practical ideas, particularly about the treatment of Islam in the constitution, for those involved in the drafting of Afghanistan's new constitution.

Islam and politics.

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On July 15-16, 1999, RAND's Center for Middle East Public Policy and the Geneva Center for Security Policy held a workshop on the likelihood of out-of-area roles for NATO, with emphasis on the Middle East. The 25 attendees explored NATO's role in operations beyond its borders, European capabilities for power projection, Western policy toward the Middle East and the Gulf, the Arab-Israel area and external power intervention, and external intervention and the Persian Gulf. There was a general consensus that any military action required in the Gulf or Middle East would probably be carried out by a "coalition of willing" NATO members rather than NATO as an institution. The gap between U.S. power projection capabilities and those of Europe is particularly striking in modern and transport aircraft and in smart weapons. The disparity was particularly evident in the Kosovo conflict. Considerable attention was given to Turkey's role in Middle East affairs, particularly the danger that NATO might be dragged into a conflict in the Middle East as a result of a dispute between Turkey and a Middle Eastern neighbor. This factor might be complicated by Turkey's relations with Russia.

National security --- North Atlantic Treaty Organization --- Middle East --- Strategic aspects