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2022 (2)

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Book
Truth Decay in Europe: Exploring the role of facts and analysis in European public life
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Abstract

The uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the need for accurate information to support sound decisions. However, having access to more information can make it harder for people to decide what to believe or not believe. This report presents the findings of a study on the evolution of the role of facts and analysis in public life in Europe. The research is part of the Countering Truth Decay Initiative, a portfolio of projects completed by the RAND Corporation to restore the role of facts and analysis in public life. After the first report in the Truth Decay series, Truth Decay — An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life, was published in 2018, exploring the Truth Decay phenomenon in the European context was a logical next step for RAND. The COVID-19 pandemic provided many stark examples of the trends characteristic to Truth Decay. In Europe, questions have been raised about access to and the quality of information regarding the pandemic, as well as the use of scientific evidence in policy making. There has been polarisation in the private and public sphere and news avoidance and disengagement from public debate. This report, however, goes beyond a recording of the current climate and explores whether the situation is getting worse, i.e. whether the disagreement about facts and data is increasing, whether the volume and resulting influence of opinion (over fact) is growing, and whether trust in formerly respected sources of information is declining.

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Classifying acts of violence: Understanding how acts of violence are classified by subject matter experts
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Classifying acts of violence, particularly terrorism, is an ongoing challenge. There are risks to society as a whole if a specific act has been misclassified. For example, this can distort statistics and affect the understanding of, as well as the risks associated with, a phenomenon. In addition, misclassification can lead to the release of offenders who could still be of harm to others. In this context, RAND Europe was commissioned to undertake a study on how different acts of violence are classified by subject matter experts (SMEs). The study was based on the inputs of 25 SMEs from a range of backgrounds (government/policy, practitioners, and academia/research) and fields (e.g. counter-terrorism, legal, policing, etc.). The SMEs first responded to a questionnaire to classify 12 case studies displaying acts of violence, then participated in a two-hour workshop, in which four of the case studies and their classification were discussed in more detail. The findings demonstrate the ongoing difficulties in classifying acts of violence. Defining such acts is not done in isolation, but comprises many different facets of the crime, including the perpetrator's motivation, the significance of their online presence, any known or emerging mental health issues, and the classifier's own knowledge, experience, and possibly any resulting biases. The misclassification of complex crimes, especially those with probable or verified connections to terrorism, bring significant risks. Based on the findings, the study team offers several recommendations for policymakers.

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Book
Holistic early education and care: Policy and practice in France 2017-2021
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Over the period 2017-2021 the attitude of the French public and policymakers towards early years education and care changed, resulting in early childhood development (ECD), particularly the affective and social components, increasingly being recognised as a priority, with early childhood education and care (ECEC) services enjoying more government support. Consequently, this period witnessed an increase in policies with a focus on expanding and improving the access and quality of childcare and preschool services, especially for the most disadvantaged and vulnerable children. This report provides an overview of the policy changes that occurred between 2017-2022. In addition, it analyses broader trends within French society and politics, illustrating a shifting attitude towards a more holistic understanding and practice around ECD. Finally, the report identifies key challenges that remain for policymakers in the future and determines relevant research gaps that could support the implementation of more evidence-based policies. The aim of this study is to point out areas for improvement, when it comes to ECD and ECEC services, to support funders, decision makers and other actors in bringing about meaningful change in the future. This research was funded by Porticus France.

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Book
European Strategic Autonomy in Defence: Transatlantic visions and implications for NATO, US and EU relations
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Competing visions of European strategic autonomy have been widely debated in European Union (EU) policy circles. The term itself has undergone a fast evolution: from an initial focus on defence to inclusion of a much broader set of security considerations such as the economy, health or technology, to name just a few. At its core, however, the concept retains an important defence dimension. Yet the path towards greater EU defence integration has been bumpy and focused on setting up new institutions, frameworks and programmes often without providing adequate resources, sustained political support or clear outputs. This legacy raises questions for the future of European strategic autonomy in defence and means many experts still view the concept with scepticism. This study examines the implications of three different possible futures of European strategic autonomy in defence, using a scenario methodology. A first scenario envisages the development of a strong European pillar of NATO on the basis of current trends. A second scenario considers a faltering EU defence integration and transatlantic fragmentation. A third and final scenario envisages a strong EU defence that does not rely on NATO for access to military capabilities and structures. Through these scenarios, this study seeks to answer the fundamental question of 'What does European strategic autonomy in defence mean for the EU, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and EU-US relations'?

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Book
Evaluation of the Ex-Service Personnel in the Criminal Justice System Programme
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Most ex-Service personnel transition effectively into civilian life, but some face challenges—including poor mental and/or physical health, unemployment, financial hardship and homelessness—that hinder a successful transition. This can lead to some individuals committing crimes and finding themselves within the criminal justice system (CJS). The Armed Forces Covenant Fund Trust provides grants across a number of different programmes, including the Ex-Service Personnel in the CJS Programme. The aim of the Programme is to reduce reoffending and provide support to ex-Service personnel who have come into contact with the CJS. Through this Programme, the Trust awarded £4.6 million in 2015 to 14 projects, followed by a further £1.1 million of continuation grants in 2018 to seven of the 14 projects. The projects and services funded under the Programme are dedicated to helping identify and support ex-Service personnel throughout the various stages of the CJS, including custody, pre-sentencing, the point of sentence and post-release from custody. RAND Europe was commissioned to evaluate this Programme, to help the Trust understand how the projects have met the aims of the Programme and what lessons and areas of good practices from the Programme could be identified with applicability for other relevant services and projects and with relevance for wider public policy. The evaluation was guided by 11 evaluation questions (EQs), nine of which focus on the individual projects, and two of which are programme-level questions.

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Book
Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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In 2017, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) disclosed approximately 470,000 files recovered in Abbottabad, Pakistan, during the 2011 raid on Osama Bin Laden's compound. According to the CIA, this collection — the Bin Laden Archive — comprises a wide array of original files from devices collected during the Abbottabad raid that are presumed to have belonged to Osama Bin Laden and other occupants of the compound. Despite the potential insights that this archive stands to offer, limited research into its data and materials has been published to date in the public domain. More broadly, publicly available research conducted so far has entailed a qualitative review of only a selected number of files and documents. In December 2018, the Research and Documentation Centre (Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum, WODC) of the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security (Ministerie van Justitie en Veiligheid) commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a study aiming to (1) inventory current knowledge on Al Qa'ida and completed and ongoing research on the Bin Laden Archive and (2) conduct an initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive.

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Book
Defence Mobilisation Planning Comparative Study: An Examination of Overseas Planning
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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The boundaries of rule-based order and global norms are being tested everywhere. Grey-zone tactics, rapid technological change, and the increased frequency and severity of natural and man-made disasters add new pressures to societal stability and prosperity. Regionally, strategic competition within the Indo-Pacific continues to increase. The Australian Government responded to this expanded range of threats in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU20). The policy proposals articulated therein are consistent with modern deterrence and different from Defence's traditional expeditionary methodology. A number of other countries, such as Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, and Singapore, have adopted deterrence positions based on the concept of 'total defence'. This depends on the entire civil community being ready and prepared to mobilise in collaboration with its armed forces but utilising economic, digital, and psychological means, just as much as military, to defend against contemporary threats. The authors suggest that adopting elements of a total defence framework for mobilisation planning would be consistent with the policy proposals in DSU20, as well as with international practice. The authors' comparison extends to the United States, where, through its National Security Strategy, it emphasises similar dimensions to total defence whilst maintaining its expeditionary approach to warfighting. Psychological and societal resilience is important to the success of total defence. The authors propose the development of a strategic narrative to engage and prepare Australian society for the new challenges. They also suggest that risk-based, rather than event-driven, approaches to mobilisation planning may meet the speed and effectiveness required in the new threat landscape.

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