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Tax concessions have been employed as a central component of the development strategy in the small island states comprising the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. This paper compares the costs of concessions in terms of revenues forgone with the benefits in terms of increased foreign direct investment. The costs are very large, while the benefits appear to be marginal at best. Forgone tax revenues range between 9½ and 16 percent of GDP per year, whereas total foreign direct investment does not appear to depend on concessions. A rethinking of the use of concessions in the region is needed urgently.
Tax credits --- Investments, Foreign --- Monetary unions --- Econometric models. --- Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. --- Common currencies --- Currency areas --- Currency unions --- Optimum currency areas --- Capital exports --- Capital imports --- FDI (Foreign direct investment) --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investment --- Foreign investments --- International investment --- Offshore investments --- Outward investments --- Credits, Tax --- ECCU --- Currency question --- Money --- Capital movements --- Investments --- Tax collection --- Tax expenditures --- Tax incentives --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Corporate Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate & business tax --- Finance --- Corporate income tax --- Tax holidays --- Consumption taxes --- Corporations --- Spendings tax --- Antigua and Barbuda
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This note argues that the IMF is filling a critical gap by integrating gender issues into it work. It makes the case that (i) closing gender gaps is critical for economies because they lead to underdevelopment, underutilization, and misallocation of productive human resources; and (ii) applying a gender lens to macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy design can narrow gender gaps and result in improved economic outcomes. This Note complements this argument by providing an overview of gender gaps in opportunities, outcomes, and representation; taking stock of how these gaps impact macroeconomic and financial outcomes; and identifying which polices can narrow gender gaps. It explains how narrowing gender gaps can benefit societies and outline steps countries can take to unleash the economic gains from gender equality.
Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Currency crises --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Economic sectors --- Economics of Gender --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Employment --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial inclusion --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Forgone Income --- Gender diversity --- Gender inequality --- Gender Studies --- Gender studies --- Gender studies, gender groups --- Gender --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Income economics --- Informal sector --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Labor force participation --- Labor market --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor --- Labour --- Migration --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Sex discrimination --- Sex role --- Social discrimination & equal treatment --- Unemployment --- Value of Life --- Wages --- Women & girls --- Women --- Women's Studies
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On the current pace of reforms, global gender gaps are estimated to close, using deterministic (linear or log-linear) trends, over the next three centuries. This means that many women will likely not be able to fully use their abilities and talents, to the detriment of societies, for a long time. Yet this paper shows that, absent a significant step up in policy efforts, gender gaps may in fact never close. Using Markov chains, a common approach in macroeconomics, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation. This methodology does not impose strong restrictions on the data, allowing for episodes of progress as well as regress by countries on gender inequality. Based on the experience of the past three decades, the analysis predicts a further narrowing of gender gaps over time. But the long-run distribution of gender gaps in labor force participation features a substantial share of countries with persistently large gaps, implying that—absent a strengthened and systematic policy effort—some of the current misallocation of women’s talents and abilities could persist perpetually.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of Gender --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policy --- Gender inequality --- Gender Studies --- Gender studies --- Gender --- Income economics --- Income --- Informal sector --- Labor force participation --- Labor market --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- National accounts --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Redistributive Effects --- Sex discrimination --- Social discrimination & equal treatment --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Women & girls --- Women --- Women's Studies
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Unemployment pressures among nationals are emerging in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC). 2 At a time when a rapidly growing number of young nationals are entering the labor force and governments are no longer able to act as employers of first and last resort, the non-oil sector continues to rely on expatriate labor to meet its labor requirements in most GCC countries. In this environment, policymakers face the related challenges of addressing unemployment pressures while striking a balance between maintaining a liberal foreign labor policy and a reasonable level of competitiveness of the non-oil sector. Using a matching function framework, this paper examines labor market policies that are likely to expand the ability to hire nationals in the non-oil sector. It finds that an effective labor strategy should focus on strengthening investment in human capital, adopting institutional reforms, and promoting a vibrant non-oil economy.
Labor market --- Labor mobility --- Mobility, Labor --- Migration, Internal --- Labor supply --- Labor turnover --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Econometric models. --- Supply and demand --- Gulf Cooperation Council. --- Gulf Co-operation Council --- Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- States of Gulf Co-operation Council --- Golf-Rat --- GCC --- G.C.C. --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī al-ʻArabī --- GKR --- Kooperationsrat Arabischer Staaten am Golf --- Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- Duwal Majlis al-Khalīj --- Gŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Kŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun li-Duwal al-Khalīj al-ʻArabīyah --- Golfkooperationsrat --- AGCC --- A.G.C.C. --- Duwal Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Sovet sotrudnichestva arabskikh gosudarstv Persidskogo zaliva --- SSAGPZ --- Arab Gulf Cooperation Council --- مجلس التعاون الخليجي --- مجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربية --- Shūrā-yi Hamkārī-i Khalīj-i Fārs --- شوراى همکارى خليج فارس --- Persian Gulf Cooperation Council --- PGCC --- Conseil de coopération du Golfe --- Gulf Cooperative Council --- Consiglio di cooperazione del Golfo --- Ccg --- Labor --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Economic theory --- Saudi Arabia --- Income economics
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The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital services. Meanwhile, the race for technological and economic leadership has heated up, with risks of decoupling that could set back trade and growth and hinder the recovery from the worst global recession since the Great Depression. This paper studies the conditions under which a country may seek to erect barriers—banning imports or exports of cyber technologies—and in effect promote decoupling or deglobalization. A well-known result is that banning imports may be optimal in monopolistic sectors, such as the digital sector. The novel result of this paper is that banning exports can also be optimal, and in some cases superior, as it prevents technological diffusion to a challenger that may eventually become the global supplier, capturing monopoly rents and posing cybersecurity risks. However, export or import bans would come at a deleterious cost to the global economy. The paper concludes that fostering international cooperation, including in the cyber domain, could be key to avoiding technological and economic decoupling and securing better livelihoods.
Business and Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Trade: General --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Technology --- general issues --- Imports --- Exports --- Trade liberalization --- Trade balance --- International trade --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of
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The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital services. Meanwhile, the race for technological and economic leadership has heated up, with risks of decoupling that could set back trade and growth and hinder the recovery from the worst global recession since the Great Depression. This paper studies the conditions under which a country may seek to erect barriers—banning imports or exports of cyber technologies—and in effect promote decoupling or deglobalization. A well-known result is that banning imports may be optimal in monopolistic sectors, such as the digital sector. The novel result of this paper is that banning exports can also be optimal, and in some cases superior, as it prevents technological diffusion to a challenger that may eventually become the global supplier, capturing monopoly rents and posing cybersecurity risks. However, export or import bans would come at a deleterious cost to the global economy. The paper concludes that fostering international cooperation, including in the cyber domain, could be key to avoiding technological and economic decoupling and securing better livelihoods.
China, People's Republic of --- Business and Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Trade: General --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Technology --- general issues --- Imports --- Exports --- Trade liberalization --- Trade balance --- International trade --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- General issues
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This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on previous work, a composite measure of structural reforms is constructed for the 1970-2004 period. We find that outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes, while shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across episodes. Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth, but fiscal policy procyclicality is not. Low levels of market-oriented reforms and structural reform reversals are also associated with lower growth.
Business cycles --- Latin America --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics: General --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Fiscal Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Structural reforms --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Fiscal policy --- Real interest rates --- Currency crises --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial services --- Financial crises --- Interest rates --- Venezuela, República Bolivariana de
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This paper considers options to address concerns related to functioning of the International Monetary System. Despite its relative stability, the current “non-system” has the inherent weaknesses of a setup with a dominant country-issued reserve currency, wherein the reserve issuer runs fiscal and external deficits to meet growing world demand for reserve assets and where there is no ready mechanism forcing surplus or reserve-issuing countries to adjust. The problem has amplified in recent years in line with a sharp rise in the demand for reserves, reflecting in part emerging markets’ tendency to self-insure against costly capital account crises. On the demand side, the paper explores alternative insurance arrangements that could mitigate the precautionary demand for reserves. On the supply side, it assesses a menu of alternative reserve assets that could offer sustained stability and efficiency. Many of the proposals presented would require fundamental changes in the forms and degree of international cooperation, however, may gain realism and practical relevance if more incremental efforts at strengthening the current system fail.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Currencies --- Reserve currencies --- Reserve assets --- International monetary system --- Exchange rates --- Money --- Central banks --- Foreign exchange reserves --- International finance --- United States
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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Financial Crises --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- International economics --- Finance --- Banking --- Financial crises --- Financial statements --- Capital flows --- Capital markets --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Balance of payments --- Financial markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Finance, Public --- Capital movements --- Capital market --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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