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Book
Wage-Price Setting in New EU Member States
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ISBN: 1451915543 1462321488 9786612841941 1282841947 1451871015 1452757143 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/243 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper analyzes wage- and price-setting relations in new EU member countries. Panel estimates indicate a strong and significant relationship between real wages and labor productivity, as well as evidence of wage pass-through to inflation. Terms of trade shocks do not feed through to real wages. Country-specific wage developments, beyond differences in labor productivity growth, are mostly explained by real wage catch-up from different initial levels and different labor market conditions. Qualitative evidence also suggests that public sector wage demonstration effects and institutional factors may play a role in wage determination.


Book
Trade in the WAEMU : Developments and Reform Opportunities
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462339662 1452753121 1282448196 9786613821386 1451913834 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides an overview of trade reform in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) since 1996 and a quantitative assessment of potential effects on trade patterns and tariff revenue of the current reform agenda. Despite evidence of significant trade complementarities within WAEMU, implementation of the union's current trade regime still suffers from persistent non-tariff barriers and administrative weaknesses. Based on an assessment of prospects for further trade integration, the paper also recommends strengthening the implementation of the present tariff union and supports the plan to extend it to all ECOWAS members. Finally, the paper stresses that an Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU could bring to the region the political momentum needed to address the weaknesses of the current trade regime, while also underlining the corresponding challenges in terms of trade diversion and tariff revenue losses.


Book
Macro-Financial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery
Authors: ---
ISBN: 147552305X 161635481X 1484338650 Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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High corporate indebtedness can pose an important threat to the adjustment processes in some of the Euro area periphery countries, through its drag on investment as well as the possible migration of private sector losses to the sovereign balance sheet. This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of corporate debt overhang in recent years, confirming empirical evidence in the literature on the relationship between a firm’s balance sheet position and its investment choices, especially beyond certain threshold levels. Building on an event study of past crisis experiences with corporate deleveraging, it also discusses the expected macro-financial impact of the ongoing deleveraging processes in these countries, presenting available policy options to facilitate an orderly balance-sheet adjustment and support a return to productivity and growth.


Book
Tourism in the post-pandemic world : economic challenges and opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
Authors: ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: International Monetary Fund

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Digital
Are there thresholds of current account adjustment in the G7?
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2006 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Book
Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 146239518X 1452721874 128351642X 9786613828873 1451910878 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.


Book
Capital Inflows and Balance of Payments Pressures : Tailoring Policy Responses in Emerging Market Economies
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1462393594 1455239550 145194599X Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should be differentiated based on the source of balance of payments pressures. We also examine whether the policy choices in emerging market countries conform to the taxonomy's predictions and find some correspondence, especially during periods of high global liquidity.


Book
Is South Asia Ready for Take Off? : A Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Agenda
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 151351783X 1513518291 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Since the mid-1980s, durable reforms coupled with prudent macroeconomic management have brought steady progress to the South Asia region, making it one of the world’s fastest growing regions. Real GDP growth has steadily increased from an average of about 3 percent in the 1970s to 7 percent over the last decade. Although growth trajectories varied across countries, reforms supported strong per capita income growth in the region, lifting over 200 million people out of poverty in the last three decades. Today, South Asia accounts for one-fifth of the world’s population and, thanks to India’s increasing performance, contributes to over 15 percent of global growth. Looking ahead, the authors find that South Asia is poised to play an even bigger role in the global economy, in both relative and absolute terms. India has overtaken China as the fastest growing large economy and South Asia’s contribution to global growth is set to increase, while more mature economies decelerate. Greater economic diversification, with an expansion of the service sector, improvements in education, and a still sizable demographic dividend are among the key elements underpinning this performance. Based on demographic trends, more than 150 million people in the region are expected to enter the labor market by 2030. This young and large workforce can be South Asia’s strength, if supported by a successful high-quality and job-rich growth strategy. Amid a changing global economic landscape, the authors argue that South Asia will need to leverage on all sectors of the economy in a balanced way, supporting improvements in agricultural productivity and a sustainable expansion of manufacturing, while promoting higher-skill services, to achieve this goal.


Book
Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World : Economic Challenges and Opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1513569953 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.


Book
Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2006 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We find evidence of threshold behavior in current account adjustment for the G7 countries, such that the dynamics of adjustment towards equilibrium depend upon whether the current-account/ net-output ratio breaches estimated, country specific current account surplus or deficit thresholds. Both the speeds of adjustment and the size of the thresholds are found to differ significantly across countries. In addition, we also find evidence of shifts in means and variances of exchange rate changes, stock returns, and interest differentials that coincide with the current account adjustment regimes identified by the model.

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