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We study the severity of liquidity constraints in the U.S. housing market using a life-cycle model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risks in which houses are illiquid, but agents have the option to refinance their long-term mortgages or obtain home equity loans. The model reproduces well the distribution of individual-level balance sheets - the fraction of housing, mortgage debt and liquid assets in households' wealth, the fraction of hand-to-mouth homeowners (Kaplan and Violante, 2014), as well as the frequency of housing turnover and home equity extraction in the 2001 data. The model implies that 75% of homeowners are liquidity constrained and willing to pay an average of 8 cents to extract an additional dollar of liquidity from their home. Liquidity constraints imply sizable welfare losses equivalent to a 1.2% permanent reduction in consumption.
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We use firm-level data from Orbis to document that average returns to private business wealth are dispersed and persistent, and that firms experience large and fat-tailed changes in output that are not fully accompanied by changes in their capital stock and wage bill, and therefore generate large changes in firm profits. We interpret this evidence using a model of entrepreneurial dynamics in which return heterogeneity arises from both limited span of control, as well as from financial frictions which generate differences in marginal returns to wealth. The model matches the evidence on average returns and predicts that marginal returns are three fourths as dispersed as average returns, mostly reflecting risk as opposed to collateral constraints. Though financial frictions greatly depress individual firms' production choices and cash flows, they generate relatively modest productivity and output losses in the aggregate.
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We study the severity of liquidity constraints in the U.S. housing market using a life-cycle model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risks in which houses are illiquid, but agents can extract home equity by refinancing their mortgages. The model implies that four-fifths of homeowners are liquidity constrained and willing to pay an average of 13 cents to extract an additional dollar of liquidity from their home. Most homeowners value liquidity for precautionary reasons, anticipating the possibility of income declines and the need to make mortgage payments. The model reproduces well the observed response of consumption to tax rebates and mortgage relief programs and predicts large welfare gains from policies aimed at providing temporary liquidity relief to homeowners.
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