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This report provides preliminary insights from a project to assess advanced air mobility (AAM) developments, the potential for AAM technologies to support military missions, and the implications of AAM commercial markets for U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) objectives. The authors found that, while there are opportunities for AAM capability to contribute to various U.S. Air Force (USAF) missions, the potential for DoD to constitute a small market share may challenge its ability to shape the technology for defense-specific capabilities. As it considers whether to acquire AAM platforms and how to do so, given the market's commercial orientation, DoD has many tools at its disposal, aside from its buying power, to support U.S. technological leadership and military adoption of AAM. Furthermore, while DoD has numerous mechanisms to facilitate early research and development activities, experimentation and acquisition mechanisms for emerging technologies are limited and hindered by numerous barriers. These preliminary findings indicate that, regardless of whether the U.S. military ultimately adopts AAM technologies, they may provide a useful case study for DoD as it explores ways to leverage commercially derived technologies.
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Because of the widespread use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) for positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), concerns have been expressed that a disruption of GPS might require a national investment in backup capabilities. The authors assess the costs associated with realistic threats to domestic, nonmilitary uses of GPS, and review possible additions to the PNT ecosystem in light of those costs. When the ability of individuals and organizations to adapt to and use existing alternatives and workarounds is taken into account, our analysis suggests that the costs of GPS disruption, while real, would not be as high as is sometimes assumed. When actual GPS jamming events have occurred in the past, users have felt the effects but generally managed to cope without disastrous consequences. Also, we consider it unlikely that any event short of nuclear war would deny all satellite navigation to the entire United States for more than a few days. At the same time, any system that could entirely replace GPS would be comparatively much more expensive than the damages it would mitigate. Therefore, it is difficult to justify extensive investment in more GPS backups, although industry or government might well invest in PNT systems for their other merits, not just as a backup for GPS disruption per se. For example, the federal government is already investing in a system that will improve PNT for phone users in important urban areas, and this incidentally could also serve as a GPS backup.
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Intelligence collections and demand have grown over the past two decades, and intelligence analysts are often performing routine tasks, leaving them unable to conduct larger strategic analyses that are needed to address future threats as outlined by the 2018 National Defense Strategy. The authors provide an in-depth analysis of technologies that could help the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System (AF DCGS) become more effective, efficient, adept at using human capital, and agile. A key point is that artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies alone do not solve these intelligence challenges; rather, if they are properly implemented and complemented by human analysts who have the right skills and training, the capabilities can allow the AF DCGS to evolve to better meet warfighter needs. This is the second volume in a series about how AI/ML technology can help the AF DCGS meet the challenges of a demanding intelligence environment and the complexity of future threats envisioned by the 2018 National Defense Strategy. The authors provide more in-depth discussion of project methodology; a primer on AI/ML technology; case studies of analytic challenges in previous operations; best practices for successfully deploying new technologies; and other topics of interest to specialists, stakeholders, and experts.
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