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Economic conditions. Economic development --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Economic geography --- World Bank --- anno 1990-1999 --- Developing countries

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Since we introduced the term "middle-income trap" in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework.

Advanced countries --- Advanced country --- Agriculture --- Balance sheet --- Banking --- Bankruptcy --- Barriers --- Benchmark --- Benchmarks --- Capital --- Capital account --- Capital accumulation --- Capital flow --- Capital investment --- Capital investments --- Capital markets --- Carbon emissions --- Central bank --- Climate change economics --- Closed economies --- Comparative advantage --- Competition --- Competitiveness --- Currency --- Currency risk --- Customers --- Decentralization --- Democracy --- Demographic --- Deregulation --- Developing countries --- Development --- Development economics --- Development policy --- Dividend --- Economic development --- Economic developments --- Economic geography --- Economic growth --- Economic outlook --- Economic performance --- Economic progress --- Economic rents --- Economic research --- Economic structures --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Economy --- Efficient capital --- Elasticity --- Emerging economies --- Emerging markets --- Entry point --- Environmental sustainability --- Equity --- Exchange --- Exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Expectations --- Exports --- External finance --- Externalities --- Federal reserve --- Financial crisis --- Financial markets --- Financial sector --- Flexible exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investors --- Foreign markets --- Free trade --- Future --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Global economic prospects --- Globalization --- Goods --- Governance --- Growth models --- Growth potential --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Growth theories --- Growth theory --- Human capital --- Incentives --- Income --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Industrialization --- Inequality --- Infrastructure investments --- Institutional capacity --- Institutional infrastructure --- Intellectual property --- Interest --- International finance --- International trade --- Investment --- Investments --- Investors --- Knowledge economy --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor policies --- Liberalization --- Liquidity --- Low-income countries --- Macroeconomic management --- Macroeconomic performance --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Market conditions --- Market prices --- Markets --- Mic traps --- Middle income countries --- Middle-income countries --- Middle-income country --- Middle-income economies --- Monetary policy --- Money market --- National income --- Natural resources --- Open economies --- Patents --- Per capita income --- Per capita incomes --- Political economy --- Political power --- Poverty reduction --- Price --- Prices --- Private sector development --- Productivity --- Productivity growth --- Property rights --- Protectionism --- Public policy --- Rapid growth --- Real estate --- Regional integration --- Rent --- Risk management --- Safety nets --- Share --- Social capital --- Social protections and labor --- Social safety nets --- Startups --- Structural change --- Sustainable development --- Taxes --- Technological change --- Theory --- Total factor productivity --- Total factor productivity growth --- Trade --- Trade diversion --- Trade liberalization --- Trade negotiations --- Trade policy --- Trends --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rates --- Urbanization --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Venture capital --- Volatility --- Wage growth --- Wages --- World development indicators --- WTO

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As global extreme poverty has fallen-by one measure, from close to 2 billion people in 1990 to about 700 million today-the world has learned about antipoverty strategies that work. These experiences should inform the final push to end extreme poverty. In the 1960s and 1970s, when close to half of the world was living in extreme poverty, the approach that worked best consisted of two sets of complementary measures: encouraging broad-based growth that is labor using, and investing in education, health, and family planning. When extreme poverty rates came down-first in East Asia and then in other parts of the developing world-it became clear that the two-point strategy to make economies grow and enable people to invest in human capital needed a social assistance supplement to help people with disadvantages so severe that they could not benefit from economic opportunities and better social services. This two-and-a-half-point strategy has been working well over the past quarter century, and the end of extreme poverty is in sight. But more people are now at risk of slipping back into poverty because of economic, natural, and health-related hazards. To end extreme poverty by 2030, the approach now needs three complementary components: economic growth, investments in people, and measures to insure against setbacks to families, nations, and regions due to disabilities, recessions, disasters, and disease. In countries that have reduced poverty a lot and those that could do a lot better, a winning game plan for putting a quick end to extreme poverty should be based on a three-point strategy: grow, invest, and insure.

Economic Growth --- Human Capital Accumulation --- Poverty --- Social Insurance

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Social security law --- Latin America

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Economic policy and planning (general) --- Latin America