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We report on an experiment examining why default options impact behavior. Working with one of the largest private firms in Afghanistan, we randomly assigned each of 949 employees to different variants of a new default savings account. Employees assigned a default contribution rate of 5% are 40 percentage points more likely to contribute than employees assigned to a default contribution rate of zero; to achieve this effect through financial incentives alone would require a 50% match from the employer. Our design permits us to rule out several common explanations for default effects, including employer endorsement, employee inattention, and a lack of awareness about how to switch. Instead, we find evidence that the default effect is driven largely by a combination of present-biased preferences and the cognitive cost of calculating alternate savings scenarios. Default assignment also causes employees to develop savings habits that outlive our experiment: they are more likely to believe that savings is important, less likely to report being too financially constrained to save, and more likely to make an active decision to save at the end of our trial.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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One-fifth of the world's population lives in countries affected by fragility, violence and conflict, impeding long-term economic growth. However, little is known about how firms respond to local changes in security, partly because of the difficulty of measuring firm activity in these settings. This paper presents a novel methodology for observing private sector activity using mobile phone metadata. Using Afghanistan as the empirical setting, the analysis combines mobile phone data from over 2,300 firms with data from several other sources to develop and validate measures of firm location, size, and economic activity. Combining these new measures of firm activity with geocoded data on violent events, the paper investigates how the private sector in Afghanistan responds to insecurity. The findings indicate that firms reduce presence in districts following major increases in violence, that these effects persist for up to six months, and that larger firms are more responsive to violence. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential mechanisms, firms' strategic adaptations, and implications for policymakers.

Armed Conflict --- Conflict --- Conflict and Development --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Industrial Economics --- Industrial Organization --- Insecurity --- Marketing --- Mobile Phones --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Development Law --- Private Sector Economics --- Social Development --- Technology Industry --- Technology Innovation --- Violence