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This paper reviews Lithuania’s fiscal consolidation since 2009, assesses the contribution of revenue and expenditure to the consolidation, evaluates the quality of measures, and draws lessons for the future. It finds that, despite having the lowest revenue-to-GDP ratio in the EU, Lithuania’s fiscal adjustment has so far relied mainly on expenditure measures, with the quality of measures deteriorating over time. The analysis also suggests that Lithuania’s tax system, in comparison with other EU countries and regional peers, is skewed toward labor and consumption taxes, and plays a more limited role in income redistribution, especially in the upper income brackets. The paper argues therefore that there is ample scope to implement high quality revenue measures in order to complete the fiscal adjustment in the medium term in a sustainable and inclusive manner.
Fiscal policy --- Economic stabilization --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Revenue administration --- Expenditure --- Fiscal consolidation --- Consumption taxes --- Personal income --- Taxes --- Income --- National accounts --- Revenue --- Expenditures, Public --- Spendings tax --- Lithuania, Republic of
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House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Disposable income --- Asset prices --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Saving and investment --- National income --- Sweden
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Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies.
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This paper reviews public expenditure in Lithuania to identify areas where deeper structural reforms may be warranted to improve spending efficiency and contain future spending pressures. The analysis benchmarks spending in Lithuania against other European countries focusing on spending levels, spending composition, and spending outcomes, and for both economic and functional spending classifications. While recent expenditure consolidation efforts have kept public spending among the lowest in Europe, a transition from broad-based measures to more structural measures will be required: to ensure that low spending levels remain sustainable, to address poor social outcomes such as high inequality and poor health and education outcomes, and to efficiently and equitably contain spending pressures arising from an ageing population.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Health Policy --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Public Health --- Education: Government Policy --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Education: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Health: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Health economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Health systems & services --- Expenditure --- Health --- Wages --- Health care --- Expenditures, Public --- Medical care --- Lithuania, Republic of --- Income economics
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This paper applies a logistic smooth transition regression approach to the estimation of a homogenous aggregate value added production function of the State Owned (SOE) and Foreign-Funded Enterprises (FFE) in China, 1980s-2007. The transition associated with the economic reforms in China is estimated applying a curvilinear logistic function, where the speed and the timing of the transition are endogenously determined by the data. We find high but gradually declining markups in both SOEs and FFEs during the early stages of the adjustment, with SOEs having a much larger scale and market size than the FFEs. However, over the transition process, returns to scale in industrial SOEs dropped sharply. For both FFEs and SOEs the transition is slow, with a midpoint about 7 and 14 years, respectively. We find significant increase of TFP growth rate for both FFEs and SOEs, by 0.1436 and 0.1971, respectively.
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Financial “euroization”—or “dollarization” outside of Central and Eastern Europe—is typically analyzed as a singular phenomenon that can be traced to a common set of factors. This paper argues that two types of euroization need to be distinguished, which have different causes, economic consequences, and policy implications: carry trade euroization that emerges when households and corporations seek to exploit interest rate differentials between foreign currency loans and local currency deposits, and deposit-driven euroization that is rooted in distrust in the local currency as a savings vehicle. We present a theoretical framework that sketches key features of both euroization types, and test it with data from 28 Emerging European and Central Asian economies.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Accounting --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Production, Pricing, and Market Structure --- Size Distribution of Firms --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Loans --- Currencies --- Currency mismatches --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial statements --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Banks and banking --- Financial risk management --- Finance, Public --- Hungary
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Carry Trade vs. Deposit-Driven Euroization.
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This paper analyzes the evolution of investment in China, its main features, and its key determinants. In recent years, manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure have been the main drivers of investment. Investment remains largely concentrated in coastal areas, but there has been a shift to greater investments inland in recent years. The empirical analysis of the determinants of investment indicates that financial variables, such as interest rates, the exchange rate, and the depth of the domestic capital market are important determinants of corporate investment. The results suggest in particular that financial sector reform, including that which deregulates and raises real interest rates as well as appreciates the real effective exchange rate, would lower investment and help rebalance growth away from exports and investment toward private consumption.
Corporations --- Investments --- Investing --- Investment management --- Portfolio --- Finance --- Disinvestment --- Loans --- Saving and investment --- Speculation --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Corporate finance --- Real interest rates --- Corporate investment --- Real effective exchange rates --- Capital markets --- Exchange rates --- Financial services --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Interest rates --- Capital market --- China, People's Republic of --- Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models
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