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"The secrets to successfully planning and delivering ambitious, complex projects on any scale-from home renovation to space exploration-by the world's leading expert on megaprojects. Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston's "Big Dig"? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California's high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon-and won't even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life's work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed "the world's leading megaproject expert." In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours"--

Project management --- Project management. --- Gestion de projets.

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• Reference Manager
• EndNote
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Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Veel van onze beslissingen worden gestuurd door verwachtingen over de toekomst. Of je nu beleidsmaker bent, op de beurs handelt, een product wilt lanceren of een carrièreswitch overweegt, je doet voorspellingen. Het probleem is: we zijn niet erg goed in voorspellen.Hoogleraar psychologie Philip Tetlock kwam na jarenlang onderzoek tot de schokkende ontdekking dat de gemiddelde futuroloog maar een fractie beter presteert dan een aap die een pijltje gooit. Tetlocks laatste project (een ongeëvenaard voorspellingstoernooi met ruim een miljoen grote en kleine voorspellingen) toont aan dat er echter weldegelijk mensen zijn die het bij het juiste eind blijken te hebben maar juist niet de experts. Het zijn gewone mensen die in staat bleken om juiste voorspellingen te doen, soms wel 60% preciezer dan gemiddeld. Zij zijn de supervoorspellers.In dit baanbrekende boek laten Philip Tetlock en Dan Gardner zien wat we van hen kunnen leren. Een paar suggesties: veel informatiebronnen gebruiken, denken in waarschijnlijkheden, goed luisteren naar anderen en bereid zijn om terug te komen op een eerdere uitspraak. De auteurs leveren hiermee de eerste aantoonbaar effectieve methode om beter te voorspellen voor ondernemers, analisten, beleidsmakers en iedereen die meer grip op zijn leven wil krijgen.Bron : http://www.businesscontact.nl

Behavioral sciences --- Cognitieve psychologie --- Cognitive psychology --- Economic forecasting --- Economische vooruitzichten --- Forecasting --- Perspective économique --- Projection économique --- Prévision --- Prévision économique --- Prévisions économiques --- Psychologie [Cognitieve ] --- Psychologie cognitive --- Psychology [Cognitive ] --- Science sociale --- Sciences [Social ] --- Sciences sociales --- Social science --- Social sciences --- Social studies --- Sociale wetenschap --- Sociale wetenschappen --- Voorspelling --- Toekomstbeeldvorming --- Trends --- Trendwatching --- Economics --- Economic development --- Toekomstvisie --- Trend

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• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

"The secrets to successfully planning and delivering ambitious, complex projects on any scale-from home renovation to space exploration-by the world's leading expert on megaprojects. Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston's "Big Dig"? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California's high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon-and won't even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life's work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed "the world's leading megaproject expert." In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours"--

Project management. --- Management --- Decision making. --- Business. --- Business planning. --- Project management --- Decision making --- Business --- Business planning