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The decline in macroeconomic volatility from the 1980s to the onset of the Great Recession did not, in general, translate into more microeconomic stability. While microeconomic volatility can reflect growth-generating processes, such as creative destruction and re-allocation of resources, consumption growth volatility weighs on households’ welfare. This study reviews the existing literature on the link between economic policies and economic stability at the firm and household level. Based on firm-level and household-level data for a wide range of OECD countries, it also provides preliminary results on sources and patterns of microeconomic volatility.

Economics

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Economic policies shape how much people earn as well as how stable their income and jobs are. The level and stability of earnings both matter for well-being. Standard economic aggregates do not measure accurately the economic uncertainty which households are facing. This paper shows that household-level economic instability is only very loosely related to macroeconomic volatility. It uses several household-level databases to document how pro-growth reforms influence household-level economic stability. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests a trade-off between growth and micro-level stability. Certain policy changes boost growth but increase micro-level instability: they include reductions in tax progressivity or social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moves from very to moderately tight restrictions on the flow of goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.

Economics

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Economic policies shape how much people earn but also how stable their income and jobs are. The level of earnings and the degree of economic stability both matter for well-being. Micro-level data indicate that, across OECD countries, economic instability is much greater at the level of individuals than at the aggregate level. The present study investigates the effects on micro-level stability of policies that boost growth. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests possible trade-offs between growth and micro-level stability. The analysis indeed finds policy changes that boost growth but increase micro-level instability: reducing the progressivity or size of social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moving from very to moderately tight restrictions on the competition for goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.

Economics