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This paper examines the behavior of indebtedness, consumption, and asset prices in a small open economy in which the foreign real interest rate depends not only on an exogenous world interest rate and on indebtedness, but also on the value of the capital stock, viewed as an implicit “collateral,” and hence on the price of capital. The paper finds that the collateral effect magnifies the intensity of shocks to the economy and the duration of their impact. The collateral effect also generates additional distortions that could lead to overborrowing. The paper discusses the policy responses to these distortions.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Financial Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Finance --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Collateral --- Debt burden --- Consumption --- Tax arrears management --- Asset prices --- Financial institutions --- External debt --- National accounts --- Revenue administration --- Prices --- Loans --- Debts, External --- Economics --- Tax administration and procedure --- United States

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Economic development --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Government policy --- Central America. --- Dominican Republic. --- Panama. --- Audiencia de Panam --- Audiencia de Panamá del Nuevo Reino de Tierra Firme --- Estado Federal de Panam --- Panama --- Real Audiencia de Panam --- Republic of Panama --- República de Panam --- Tierra Firme --- Dominika Kyōwakoku --- Dominikaaninen tasavalta --- Dominikanische Republik --- Dominikanska republiken --- Quisqueya --- República Dominicana --- Republiḳah ha-Dominiḳanit --- République dominicaine --- San Domingo --- Santo Domingo --- Mercado Común Centroamericano countries

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This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.

Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Econometric models. --- Poland --- Poyln --- Polska Rzeczpospolita Ludowa --- Polʹsha --- P.N.R. --- P.R.L. --- Pologne --- Polish Commonwealth --- Polonia --- Warsaw (Duchy) --- Polska --- Polsko --- T︠S︡arstvo Polʹskoe --- Królestwo Polskie --- Polʹskai︠a︡ Narodnai︠a︡ Respublika --- PNR --- PRL --- Poljska --- Lehastan --- Polin --- Būlūniyā --- Polonyah --- République populaire de Pologne --- Polen --- Ppolsŭkka --- Polish People's Republic --- Republic of Poland --- Poland (Territory under German occupation, 1939-1945) --- Generalgouvernement (Poland) --- Generalne Gubernatorstwo (Poland) --- General Government (Poland) --- Heneralʹna hubernii︠a︡ (Poland) --- Rzeczpospolita Polska --- Polish Republic --- Congress Kingdom of Poland --- Congress Poland --- Królestwo Kongresowe Polskie --- Kongresówka --- Kingdom of Poland --- Lahistān --- لهستان --- Polandia --- Полшэ --- Polshė --- Pole --- Republiek van Pole --- Republik Pole --- Polaland --- Polisce Cynewise --- Полша --- Полониа --- بولندا --- Būlandā --- Polóña --- Tavakuairetã Polóña --- Польша --- Puluña --- Ripublika Puluña --- Polşa --- Polşa Respublikası --- Pulandia --- Ripublik Pulandia --- Pho-lân --- Pho-lân Kiōng-hô-kok --- Польшча --- Polʹshcha --- Рэспубліка Польшча --- Rėspublika Polʹshcha --- Polonya --- Република Полша --- Republika Polsha --- Poin --- Republika Poljska --- Польшо --- Polʹsho --- Bu̇gėdė Naĭramdakha Polʹsho Ulas --- Polská republika --- Polaki --- Gwlad Pwyl --- Gweriniaeth Gwlad Pwyl --- Republikken Polen --- Republik Polen --- Poola --- Poola Vabariik --- Πολωνία --- Pulógna --- Польша Мастор --- Polʹsha Mastor --- República de Polonia --- Pollando --- Respubliko Pollando --- Repúbrica de Poloña --- Poloniako Errepublika --- Pólland --- République de Pologne --- Poalen --- Poloonya --- Polonie --- An Pholainn --- Pholainn --- Poblacht na Polainne --- Yn Pholynn --- Pholynn --- Pobblaght ny Polynn --- A' Phòlainn --- Poblachd na Pòlainn --- Borandi --- Pô-làn --- Польшин Орн --- Polʹshin Orn --- 폴란드 --- P'ollandŭ --- Pōlani --- Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth --- Crown of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania --- Commonwealth of Poland --- Lehastani Hanrapetutʻyun --- Польшæ --- Polʹshæ --- Польшæйы Республикæ --- Polʹshæĭy Respublikæ --- IPoland --- IPolandi --- Lýðveldið Pólland --- Repubblica di Polonia --- פולין --- רפובליקת פולין --- Republiḳat Polin --- Poleni --- Kunngiitsuuffik Poleni --- Pòlskô Repùblika --- Poloni --- Polonye --- Polòy --- Puoleja --- Puolejis Republika --- Polija --- Polijas Republika --- Lenkija --- Lenkijos Respublika --- Polsca --- Republica de Polsca --- Pol'šu --- Polskas --- Bupoolo --- Bupolska --- Ripablik kya Bupoolo --- Lengyelország --- Lengyel Köztársaság --- Lithuania (Grand Duchy) --- Foreign economic relations --- Mathematical models. --- Economic conditions --- Statistical methods. --- General Government for Occupied Polish Territories --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Inflation targeting --- Vector autoregression --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Econometric analysis --- Poland, Republic of

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This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic forecasting --- Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models. --- Monetary management --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Economic indicators --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Real exchange rates --- Output gap --- Real interest rates --- Short term interest rates --- Prices --- Production --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- United States

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We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has several unique features which differentiate it from the rest of emerging Asia. These features (the use of multiple monetary-policy instruments and a managed-floating exchange-rate policy) mean that a separate treatment of China allows for a better consideration of China, as well as how the rest of emerging Asia behaves.

Economic development --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Global Outlook --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Output gap --- Exchange rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Oil prices --- Production --- Financial services --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- China, People's Republic of