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Book
Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Nominal and Indexed Debt
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462398081 1452738939 1283513048 9786613825490 1451919972 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper highlights the importance of debt composition in setting optimal fiscal and monetary policy over short-run business cycles and in the long run. Nominal debt as state-contingent debt can be a significant policy tool to reduce the volatility of distortionary government policy, thereby reducing macroeconomic volatility while increasing equilibrium output and consumption. The welfare gain from using nominal debt to hedge against shocks to the government budget is as large as the welfare gain from the ability to issue debt.


Book
The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis : Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462335780 145274114X 1282108239 9786613801586 1451899785 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles, to assess vulnerabilities retroactively in two historical country cases. The results indicate that the method may prove helpful in identifying corporate sector vulnerabilities and estimating the associated value of risk transfer across interrelated balance sheets of the corporate, financial, and public sectors.


Book
Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth?
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462363849 1452747040 1282448382 145199026X 9786613821577 Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Over the past decades, workers' remittances have grown to become one of the largest sources of financial flows to developing countries, often dwarfing other widely-studied sources such as private capital and official aid flows. While it is undeniable that remittances have poverty-alleviating and consumption-smoothing effects on recipient households, a key empirical question is whether they also serve to promote long-run economic growth. This study tackles this question and addresses the main shortcomings of previous empirical work, focusing on the appropriate measurement, and incorporating an instrument that is both correlated with remittances and would only be expected to affect growth through its effect on remittances. The results show that, at best, workers' remittances have no impact on economic growth.


Book
Fiscal Sustainability in Remittance-Dependent Economies
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1451917619 146235677X 1282843990 9786612843990 1451873379 1452705666 Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal policy for countries with different balance of payments characteristics.


Book
Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts : Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1451863217 1462380085 1451908571 9786613828804 1452714835 1283516357 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the influence of countercyclical remittances on the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy and trace their effects on real and nominal variables in a business cycle setting. We show that remittances raise disposable income and consumption, and insure against income shocks, thereby raising household welfare. However, remittances increase the correlation between labor and output, thereby producing a more volatile business cycle and increasing output and labor market risk. Optimal monetary policy in the presence of remittances deviates from the Friedman rule, highlighting the need for independent government policy instruments.


Book
Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462374042 1452758239 1283518414 1451907109 9786613830869 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a marked-to-market balance sheet for the sovereign, and derive a set of credit-risk indicators that serve as a barometer of sovereign risk. Applications to 12 emerging market economies show the risk indicators to be robust and highly correlated with market spreads. The framework can help policymakers design risk mitigation strategies and rank policy options using a calibrated structural model unique to each economy.


Book
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1462387519 1452703914 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of poverty and insuring them against income shocks. The findings also yield a number of important caveats and policy considerations, however, that have largely been overlooked. The main challenge for policymakers in countries that receive significant flows of remittances is to design policies that promote remittances and increase their benefits while mitigating adverse side effects. Getting these policy prescriptions correct early on is imperative. Globalization and the aging of developed economy populations will ensure that demand for migrant workers remains robust for years to come. Hence, the volume of remittances likely will continue to grow, and with it, the challenge of unlocking the maximum societal benefit from these transfers.


Book
Macroeconomic consequences of remittances.
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington International monetary fund

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