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The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the Arab Republic of Egypt's economy and its people in many ways. By combining micro-simulations and imputation techniques, this paper models early impacts of the pandemic on household income and the role of cash transfers from the Government of Egypt in supporting households and workers. As expected, and consistent with other evidence, the estimates show that the pandemic shock decreased labor incomes and increased income poverty in Egypt. It was estimated that in fiscal year 2020, average household income per capita contracted by about 1.7 percent, and income poverty was about 2.2 percentage points higher, compared to a non-COVID-19 scenario for the same year, using the international poverty line of $3.65 a day (2017 purchasing power parity). Labor income losses were widespread across the country, disproportionately affecting informal workers. The results also suggest that expanded social protection cash transfers and targeted cash assistance to Egypt's informal and tourism sectors played a substantial role in smoothing the initial labor income shock. In the absence of compensatory cash transfers, income poverty would have been 1.1 percentage points higher. The compensatory measures, in particular the cash transfer programs Takaful and Karama, preferentially protected rural households due to the programs' targeting rules. Thus, households in urban areas were significantly more likely to become income poor, compared to those in rural settings.

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The third round of data collection on monitoring of socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic in Djibouti followed urban national households based on two previous waves of data collection as well as a replacement sub-sample. This round also includes a refugee sub-sample, covering urban refugees and those based in refugee villages. Economic recovery in Djibouti continues to follow a positive trend. Breadwinners from Djiboutian households continue to come back to work. Only 4 percent of those working before the pandemic were not working at the time of the survey. Even when counting those who were not working before the pandemic, 83 percent of all national households' breadwinners are now working - continuing strong trends from waves 1 and 2. Nationals with waged work grew from 22 to 76 percent in that time, and only 9 percent of those currently working report working less than usual. Djiboutian workers are also working more - but for less pay. Only one in five Djiboutian breadwinners are working less than they were before the pandemic or not at all. However, half of those who worked less than usual received no pay in wave 3 - 53 percent up from 35 percent in wave 2, and fewer received partial payment compared to the previous waves. Poor households were more likely to have received no pay for work performed. Refugees based in refugee villages face worse employment conditions than those living in urban areas or urban nationals. They were less likely to be employed prior to COVID-19, more likely to lose their job during pandemic, and do not exhibit similar signs of recovery. Around 68 percent of urban refugee breadwinners are currently working and 7 percent who worked before the pandemic are currently not working. In comparison, less than half (49 percent) of refugee breadwinners based in refugee villages are currently working, and 16 percent are no longer working relative to pre-COVID-19. A quarter of urban refugees and around 35 percent of refugees in refugee villages worked neither now nor before the pandemic, and nearly a third (29 percent) of the latter who are working report working less than usual. In addition, refugee breadwinners' concentration in the informal sector (87 percent) highlights the precarity of their livelihood.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Economic Recovery --- Employment --- Employment and Unemployment --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Refugees --- Social Protections and Labor

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Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.

Current Account --- Economic Growth --- External Balances --- Fiscal Balance --- Oil Exporters --- Oil Importers --- Oil Prices --- Productivity