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The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by ¾ of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.

Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Investments: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Energy: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Financial Crises --- Labor Economics: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Investment & securities --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Labour --- income economics --- Oil --- Total factor productivity --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Labor --- Oil prices --- Commodities --- Financial crises --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Industrial productivity --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Labor economics --- Russian Federation

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This paper examines how financial development affects the sources of growth—productivity and investment—using a sample of 145 countries for the period 1960-2011. We employ a range of econometric approaches, focusing on the CCA and MENA countries. The analysis looks beyond financial depth to capture the access, efficiency, stability, and openness dimensions of financial development. Yet even in this broad interpretation, financial development does not appear to be a magic bullet for economic growth. We cannot confirm earlier findings of an unambiguously positive relationship between financial development, investment, and productivity. The relationship is more complex. The influence of the different dimensions of financial development on the sources of growth varies across income levels and regions.

Financial institutions --- Capital market --- Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Financial intermediaries --- Lending institutions --- Associations, institutions, etc. --- E-books --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Financial sector development --- Stock markets --- Total factor productivity --- Income --- Stocks --- Financial markets --- National accounts --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Industrial productivity --- United States

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Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.

Economic development --- Middle East --- Asia, Central --- Economic conditions --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Investments: Energy --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Energy: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Investment & securities --- Labour --- income economics --- Productivity --- Oil --- Capital accumulation --- Oil prices --- Production --- Commodities --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Economic theory --- Saving and investment --- Russian Federation