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This paper provides a narrative analysis of regulatory policy changes affecting the purchases and holdings of mortgages and related securities of five US government entities over the 1968-2014 period. We focus on federal government policies that aim to influence the allocation and/or volume of the supply of residential mortgage credit. We use contemporary primary sources and various institutional histories to identify significant policy interventions, to document their economic and regulatory context, surrounding motives, and pertinent timing, as well as to quantify projected impacts on agencies' mortgage holdings. Finally, we classify each significant policy change as either "cyclically motivated" or "unrelated to the business and/or financial cycle."
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We document the portfolio activity of federal housing agencies and provide evidence on its impact on mortgage markets and the economy. Through a narrative analysis, we identify historical policy changes leading to expansions or contractions in agency mortgage holdings. Based on those regulatory events that we classify as unrelated to short-run cyclical or credit market shocks, we find that an increase in mortgage purchases by the agencies boosts mortgage lending and lowers mortgage rates. Agency purchases influence prices in other asset markets and stimulate residential investment. Using information in GSE stock prices to construct an alternative instrument for agency purchasing activity yields very similar results as our benchmark narrative identification approach.
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Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state level. We find that faster recoveries are associated with greater heterogeneity in the recovery rate of unemployment and slower recoveries tend to be more uniformly paced across states. In addition, we find that the pace of unemployment recoveries is strongly correlated with a states' manufacturing share of output.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Unemployment rate --- Economic recession --- Business cycles --- Labor markets --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Recessions --- Labor market --- United States
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This paper provides a narrative analysis of regulatory policy changes affecting the purchases and holdings of mortgages and related securities of five US government entities over the 1968-2014 period. We focus on federal government policies that aim to influence the allocation and/or supply of residential mortgage credit. We use contemporary primary sources and various institutional histories to identify significant policy interventions, to document their economic and regulatory context, surrounding motives, and pertinent timing, as well as to quantify projected impacts on agencies' mortgage holdings. Finally, we classify each significant policy change as either 'cyclically motivated' or 'non-cyclically motivated.' The results of the narrative analysis of federal housing credit policy changes yield a record of events that can be used as an instrumental variable for agency purchase activity.
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Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state level. We find that faster recoveries are associated with greater heterogeneity in the recovery rate of unemployment and slower recoveries tend to be more uniformly paced across states. In addition, we find that the pace of unemployment recoveries is strongly correlated with a states' manufacturing share of output.
United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Unemployment rate --- Economic recession --- Business cycles --- Labor markets --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Recessions --- Labor market
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We document the portfolio activity of federal housing agencies and provide evidence on its impact on mortgage markets and the economy. Through a narrative analysis, we identify historical policy changes leading to expansions or contractions in agency mortgage holdings. Based on those regulatory events that we classify as unrelated to short-run cyclical or credit market shocks, we find that an increase in mortgage purchases by the agencies boosts mortgage lending, in particular refinancing, and lowers mortgage rates. Agency purchases influence prices in other asset markets, stimulate residential investment and expand homeownership. Using information in GSE stock prices to construct an alternative instrument for agency purchasing activity yields very similar results as our benchmark narrative identification approach.
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