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Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.

Economic assistance --- Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Econometric models. --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- International Business Cycles --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Output gap --- Financial crises --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial markets --- Production --- Financial services industry --- Economic theory --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- China, People's Republic of

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We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.

Income --- Democracy --- Family income --- Fortunes --- Household income --- Personal income --- Economics --- Finance --- Property --- Wealth --- Gross national product --- Profit --- Purchasing power --- Econometric models. --- Economic aspects. --- Econometric models --- Economic aspects --- E-books --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Resources --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics --- Environmental and Ecological Economics: General --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Environmental management --- Natural resources --- National income --- Income shocks --- Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models

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This paper applies state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to develop the first sentiment index measuring member countries’ reception of IMF policy advice at the time of Article IV Consultations. This paper finds that while authorities of member countries largely agree with Fund advice, there is variation across country size, external openness, policy sectors and their assessed riskiness, political systems, and commodity export intensity. The paper also looks at how sentiment changes during and after a financial arrangement or program with the Fund, as well as when a country receives IMF technical assistance. The results shed light on key aspects on Fund surveillance while redefining how the IMF can view its relevance, value added, and traction with its member countries.

Canada --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other Computer Software --- Commodity Markets --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- Machine learning --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Financial Sector Assessment Program --- Financial sector --- Commodity prices --- Prices --- Technology --- Economic sectors --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial services industry

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Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that in some circumstances managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macro-financial conditions. Effectiveness however does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Central bank policy rate --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial services --- Prices --- Interest rates --- Russian Federation