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This paper studies the interaction between entry barriers and idiosyncratic distortions in the context of a standard model of firm dynamics. It derives a strategy to infer entry barriers based on the combination of cross-country data on average firm size, cross-country estimates of idiosyncratic distortions, and equilibrium conditions of the theory. It finds sizable entry barriers that correlate positively with income per-capita. The TFP gains from complete reversals of distortions range between 20 and 50 percent. Idiosyncratic distortions are most distortive in low income countries whereas entry barriers are relatively more detrimental in advanced economies. The study also finds that distortions tend to mitigate each other's negative effect on TFP.
Entry Barriers --- Firm Size --- Misallocation --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- Productivity
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Developing countries are deindustrializing at earlier stages of development than experienced by advanced economies. Is this trend symptomatic of inefficiency If so, what are the welfare costs This paper proposes a definition of premature deindustrialization based on whether the pace of deindustrialization diverges from the one implied by a theoretical benchmark of efficient sectoral allocation. It identifies 10 episodes of premature deindustrialization, carrying negligible welfare costs, below 1 percent of aggregate consumption.
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Argentina is characterized by low levels of private credit and persistent labor market rigidities. Furthermore, financial development remained stagnant in Argentina even during episodes of fast economic growth, in stark contrast with the experience of sustained growth accelerations around the world. The goals of the paper are twofold. Firstly, it is concerned with quantifying the productivity losses associated with such low levels of private credit penetration and characterizing its implications for different subsets of firms in the economy. The latter is important in light of various policy interventions aimed at mitigating the impact of low access to credit based on firm-size thresholds. Secondly, it studies the dynamics of hypothetical reforms to credit markets in a context of rigid labor markets, which seems to be the adequate scenario in which structural reforms will have to be implemented, given the stickiness that labor market regulations have shown to reform efforts in the past. It finds sizable productivity losses from financial frictions, in the order of thirteen percent. At the micro level it finds that it is the youngest firms, whose average marginal return to capital is far above the riskfree rate in the economy, that are more prone to become financially constrained. Turning to reform scenarios, we investigate sudden reforms that are implemented abruptly and more plausible reform paths that gradually dismantle financial frictions. In the former, productivity and the investment rate rise sharply on impact, while it also does the rate of unemployment, going from five to almost twelve percent. In the latter, the rise of unemployment is more gradual and less sharp, peaking at seven percent. On the flipside, the investment rate declines on impact, although the contraction is short-lived.
Access To Finance --- Employment and Unemployment --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Labor Policy --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment
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This paper proposes a quantitative model of firm dynamics with endogenous innovation to study growth acceleration episodes triggered by reforms. The authors find that reforms removing barriers to firm entry lead to persistent growth in TFP and declining average firm size, as in the experience of successful post-communist transitions. Reforms that reverse resource misallocation result in more protracted paths of TFP and rising average firm size, as in the experience of non-communist growth accelerations. When calibrating the reforms to data from Chile's and China's growth accelerations, the model can replicate the macro and firm-level features of these episodes.
Innovation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Misallocation --- Private Sector Development --- Privatization --- Transition Dynamics
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This paper uses comprehensive and comparable firm-level manufacturing census data from four Sub-Saharan African countries to examine the extent, costs, and nature of within-industry resource misallocation across heterogeneous firms. The paper finds evidence of severe misallocation in which resources are diverted away from high-productivity firms toward low-productivity ones in all four countries, although the magnitude differs across countries. The paper shows that a hypothetical reallocation of resources that equalizes marginal returns across firms would increase manufacturing productivity by 31.4 percent in Cote d'Ivoire and as much as 162.7 percent in Kenya. The paper emphasizes the importance of the quality of the underlying data, by comparing the results against those from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. The comparison finds that the survey-based results underestimate the extent of misallocation vis-a-vis the census. Finally, the paper finds that the size of existing distortions is correlated with various measures of business environment, such as lack of access to finance, corruption, and regulations.
Business Environment --- Distortions --- Misallocation --- Total Factor Productivity
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What are the effects of a large temporary shock to the economy such as a temporary lockdown in response to a pandemic? Are the effects propagated and made persistent by firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market frictions? This paper develops a model with financial market and labor market frictions to answer these questions. The model makes quantitative predictions about the effect on output, employment and firm dynamics from lockdowns of varying magnitude and duration. It finds that the effects are not persistent despite the deterioration of the financial soundness of non-essential firms and labor market frictions, if (i) laid-off workers can be recalled by their previous employers without having to go through the frictional labor market and (ii) the government provides employment subsidies to firms during lockdown. However, the effect are heterogeneous and young non-essential firms are disproportionately affected. In addition, if lockdowns lead to more permanent reallocation across industries, the recession becomes more protracted.
Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Economic Shock --- Employment --- Employment Subsidy --- Firm Dynamics --- Labor Markets --- Lockdown --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- Resource Reallocation --- Social Protections and Labor
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What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market frictions propagate and prolong the effects? We answer these questions in a model with financial and labor market frictions. The model makes quantitative predictions about the effect of lockdowns of varying magnitude and duration on output, employment and firm dynamics. We find that the effects are not persistent if (i) workers on temporary layoff can be recalled by their previous employers without having to go through the frictional labor market and (ii) the government provides employment subsidies to firms during the lockdown. However, the effects are heterogeneous and young non-essential firms are disproportionately affected. In addition, if lockdowns lead to more permanent reallocation across industries, the recession becomes more protracted. Although the paper is motivated by the lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic, the framework can be readily applied to large, temporary shocks of different nature.
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