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Under what conditions are budget institutions likely to be strengthened? We find that fiscal deficits do not help in focusing policymakers on undertaking reforms. To the contrary, the larger the deficit, the lower is the likelihood of reforms. Large deficits apparently imply strong claims on the budget and, hence, generate unwillingness to impose self-discipline. As such, countries will tend to move either to small fiscal deficits and good institutions or large deficits and weak institutions. Economic shocks (if they are large enough) can help build a constituency for improving budget institutions. However, if forgiving markets accommodate economic shocks, even such pressure may be insufficient. Forwardlooking and credible leadership appears to be an important ingredient of the solution.

Budget process --- Budget deficits --- Deficits, Budget --- Budget --- Deficit financing --- Finance, Public --- Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Fiscal Policy --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Budgeting & financial management --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Budget planning and preparation --- Fiscal stance --- Current account deficits --- Government debt management --- Fiscal policy --- Balance of payments --- Debts, Public --- Prices --- China, People's Republic of

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Although the impact of the global crisis has been severe, real per capita GDP growth stayed positive in two-thirds of low-income countries (LICs), unlike in previous global downturns, and in contrast to richer countries. Emerging from the Global Crisis explores how LICS have coped with the global economic crisis. It reviews the impact of the crisis on LICs, domestic policy responses to the crisis, and the precrisis conditions of select countries. The prospects and challenges that LICs face are also considered. Sections of the paper look at growth prospects, policy recommendations, the general macroeconomic outlook, as well as the rebuilding of fiscal buffers. The authors also "stress-test" LICs' exposure to further volatility by using a hypothetical "downside" recovery scenario.

Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Financial crises --- Economic development --- Crise financière mondiale, 2008-2009 --- Crises financières --- Développement économique --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) --- E-books --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Government debt management --- Current account balance --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Balance of payments --- Debts, Public --- Tanzania, United Republic of

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As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Economic development --- Prices --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Commodity Markets --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Fiscal Policy --- Food prices --- Fiscal space --- Commodity price shocks --- Fiscal policy --- Burkina Faso

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The budget is an expression of political rather than economic priorities. We confirm this proposition for a group of new and potential members of the European Union, finding that politics dominates. The contemporary practice of democracy can increase budget deficits through not only ideological preferences but also more fragmented government coalitions and higher voter participation. Long-term structural forces, triggered by societal divisions and representative electoral rules, have more ambiguous implications but also appear to increase budget pressures, as others have also found. However, our most robust, and hopeful, finding is that budget institutions-mechanisms and rules of the budget process-that create checks and balances have significant value even when the politics is representative but undisciplined, and when long-term structural forces are unfavorable.

Budget -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Elections -- Economic aspects -- European Union countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Budget --- Fiscal policy --- Elections --- Econometric models. --- Economic aspects --- Electoral politics --- Franchise --- Polls --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Budgeting --- Government policy --- Political science --- Politics, Practical --- Plebiscite --- Political campaigns --- Representative government and representation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Forecasting --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditure --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Unemployment rate --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Debts, Public --- Unemployment --- Poland, Republic of --- Income economics

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This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Fuel prices --- Export performance --- Energy prices --- Real exports --- International trade --- National accounts --- Exports --- China, People's Republic of