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This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also suggests that raising real GDP growth will require increases in both investment levels and productivity. With a ratio of investment to GDP of 13 percent during the last decade, significantly higher productivity growth and investment will be needed to sustain GDP growth rates at 5 percent or higher. The historical performance also indicates that, in the absence of structural reforms and strong institutions, higher rates of productivity growth will be hard to achieve.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Gross domestic product -- Papua New Guinea. --- Papua New Guinea -- Economic conditions. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Gross domestic product --- Papua New Guinea --- Economic conditions. --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Accounting --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Total factor productivity --- Productivity --- Labor --- Growth accounting --- Production growth --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Economic development --- Economic theory
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The persistence in Guyana of a substantial underground economy is an important consequence of economic and social policy over 1964-2000. The paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of, and changes to the underground economy in Guyana, as well as its adverse effect on tax collection, during this period.
Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Economics: General --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Informal economy --- Currencies --- Average effective tax rate --- Personal income --- Tax evasion --- Economic sectors --- Money --- Tax policy --- National accounts --- Revenue administration --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Tax administration and procedure --- Income --- Guyana
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This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Capital productivity -- Mexico. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Gross domestic product -- Mexico. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Mexico. --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Total factor productivity --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Production growth --- Economic theory --- Industrial productivity --- Prices --- Mexico --- Gross domestic product --- Inflation (Finance) --- Capital productivity
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This paper assesses the presence of opportunistic electoral budget cycles in Papua New Guinea. Using quarterly time series data, a clear pattern emerges of pre-election manipulations of fiscal policy by incumbent governments, mainly in the form of increased development spending and overall primary expenditure, followed in some cases by retrenchment in post-election periods. These findings are consistent with the predictions of rational opportunistic political business cycle theory. It is noteworthy that revenue was not statistically significantly related to elections, either in the pre- or post-election period. In this regard, electoral swings in fiscal deficits reflect a preference for influencing expenditures rather than taxation.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Expenditure --- Business cycles --- Total expenditures --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditures, Public --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Papua New Guinea --- Budget process --- Elections --- Political aspects --- Econometric models. --- Economic aspects --- Economic policy
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