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This paper studies the effect of climate change mitigating policies on innovation in clean energy technologies. Results suggest that the tightening of environmental policies since the early 1990s have made a statistically and economically significant contribution to the increase in clean innovation. These effects generally materialized quickly, within 2 to 3 years of the policy change, and were driven by individually significant marginal effects of both market-based policies – such as feed-in tariffs and trading schemes – as well as non-market policies, such as R&D subsidies or emission limits. Looking at electricity innovation in particular, the paper finds that the estimated effect on total innovation is positive on net, meaning that increased innovation in clean and grey technologies is not offset by a decrease in innovation in dirty technologies. From a policy point of view, the paper’s results call for strong policy efforts to decisively shift innovation towards clean technologies.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Policy --- Investments: Energy --- Energy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Electric Utilities --- Alternative Energy Sources --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Technology --- general issues --- Investment & securities --- Environmental management --- Environmental policy --- Environment --- Electricity --- Commodities --- Climate policy --- Renewable energy --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Electric utilities --- Renewable energy sources --- Japan
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This paper studies the effect of climate change mitigating policies on innovation in clean energy technologies. Results suggest that the tightening of environmental policies since the early 1990s have made a statistically and economically significant contribution to the increase in clean innovation. These effects generally materialized quickly, within 2 to 3 years of the policy change, and were driven by individually significant marginal effects of both market-based policies – such as feed-in tariffs and trading schemes – as well as non-market policies, such as R&D subsidies or emission limits. Looking at electricity innovation in particular, the paper finds that the estimated effect on total innovation is positive on net, meaning that increased innovation in clean and grey technologies is not offset by a decrease in innovation in dirty technologies. From a policy point of view, the paper’s results call for strong policy efforts to decisively shift innovation towards clean technologies.
Japan --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Policy --- Investments: Energy --- Energy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Electric Utilities --- Alternative Energy Sources --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Technology --- general issues --- Investment & securities --- Environmental management --- Environmental policy --- Environment --- Electricity --- Commodities --- Climate policy --- Renewable energy --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Electric utilities --- Renewable energy sources --- General issues
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The paper investigates the economic effects of major product market reforms in some of the historically most protected non-manufacturing industries. It relies on a unique mapping between new annual data on reform shocks and sector-level outcomes for five network industries (electricity and gas, land transport, air transport, postal services, and telecommunications) in twenty-six countries spanning over three decades. The use of a threedimensional panel and careful instrumentation of reform shocks using external instruments enables us to control for economy-wide macroeconomic shocks and address possible sources of omitted variable bias more broadly. Using a local projection method, we find that major reductions in barriers to entry yield large increases in output and labor productivity over a five-year horizon, concomitant with a relative price decline. By contrast, there is only a weak positive effect on sectoral employment, and investment is essentially unaffected, suggesting that output gains from reform primarily reflect higher total factor productivity. It takes some time for these gains to materialize: effects become statistically significant two to three years after the reform, as prices start dropping, and productivity and output increase significantly. However, there is no evidence of any negative short-term cost from reform, including under weak macroeconomic conditions. These findings provide a clear case for intensifying product market reform efforts in advanced economies at the current juncture of weak growth.
Deregulation --- Competition --- Product management --- Brand management --- Management, Product --- Marketing --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Supply and demand --- Trusts, Industrial --- Industries --- Regulatory reform --- Industrial policy --- Trade regulation --- Management --- Economic aspects --- Law and legislation --- E-books --- Deregulation. --- Competition. --- Product management. --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Aggregate Productivity --- Commodities --- Commodity exchanges --- Commodity markets --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economic theory --- Economics of Regulation --- Electric Utilities --- Electric utilities --- Electricity --- Employment --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Human Capital --- Income economics --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- Infrastructure --- Institutions and Growth --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Energy --- Labor Productivity --- Labor productivity --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- National accounts --- Occupational Choice --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Saving and investment --- Skills --- Transportation --- Unemployment --- Wages --- United States
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How important is foreign knowledge for domestic innovation outcomes? How is this relation shaped by globalization and the attendant intensification of international competition? Our empirical approach extends the previous literature by analyzing a large panel comprising industries in both advanced and emerging economies over the past two decades. We find that barriers to the domestic diffusion of foreign knowledge have fallen significantly for emerging economies. For all countries, and especially for emerging economies, inflows of foreign knowledge have a growing and quantitatively important impact on domestic innovation. Controlling for the amount of domestic R&D, we find evidence that increases in international competitive pressure at the industry level had a positive effect on domestic innovation outcomes.
Technological innovations --- Economic aspects. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Production and Operations Management --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade: General --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Competition --- Stocks --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Productivity --- Imports --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Production --- International trade --- Financial services industry --- Industrial productivity --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Labor productivity --- Production --- Productivity --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Exports --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Industrial productivity --- International finance --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Globalization --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Globalization: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Total factor productivity --- Labor productivity --- Exports --- International trade --- Imports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Tariff --- Industrial productivity --- China, People's Republic of
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Based on an empirical gravity model of sectoral bilateral trade, we uncover three features of bilateral trade balances. First, the difficulty of gravity models in fitting the observed level of bilateral balances is likely due to the presence of unobservable bilateral trade costs. Second, the model fit improves drastically when we focus on changes over time of the balances. Third, using a log linear approximation we show that changes in bilateral trade balances over the past two decades were driven almost entirely by changes in the same macro factors that determine countries’ aggregate balances – changes in bilateral trade costs, including tariffs, played therefore only a negligible role. This conclusion provides new support for the view that bilateral balances are, for practical purposes, not relevant to the conduct of macroeconomic policy.
Business and Economics --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Econometric Modeling: General --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Trade balance --- Plurilateral trade --- Exports --- Gravity models --- Trade relations --- International trade --- Econometric analysis --- Balance of trade --- Econometric models --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
China, People's Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Globalization --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Globalization: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Total factor productivity --- Labor productivity --- Exports --- International trade --- Imports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Tariff --- Industrial productivity
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How important is foreign knowledge for domestic innovation outcomes? How is thisrelation shaped by globalization and the attendant intensification of internationalcompetition? Our empirical approach extends the previous literature by analyzing alarge panel comprising industries in both advanced and emerging economies over thepast two decades. We find that barriers to the domestic diffusion of foreign knowledgehave fallen significantly for emerging economies. For all countries, and especially foremerging economies, inflows of foreign knowledge have a growing and quantitativelyimportant impact on domestic innovation. Controlling for the amount of domesticR&D, we find evidence that increases in international competitive pressure at theindustry level had a positive effect on domestic innovation outcomes
Choose an application
This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.
China, People's Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Production and Operations Management --- Exports and Imports --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Labor productivity --- Production --- Productivity --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Exports --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Industrial productivity --- International finance --- Balance of trade
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