Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper investigates the distributional direct welfare impact on households resulting from fuel subsidy removal. Note that this analysis focuses only on the direct distributional impact. A fuller understanding of the impact of fuel subsidies removal involves analyzing the indirect impact as well. Unfortunately, analysis of the distributional effect of fuel subsidies removal or fuel price increases is heavily constrained by the lack of appropriate data in Sudan. We do not have access to the relevant input-output table that describes the number of monetary transfers between sectors of the economy, making it impossible to simulate the indirect effect of fuel price increases on prices in other sectors. Therefore, the estimated impacts in this paper should be considered as the lower bound of the potential impact, as the overall impact will be higher when indirect impacts are factored. The paper is organized as follows. Section two examines the empirical evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy removal. Section three discusses the methodology and data used in this study. Section four presents an analysis of the welfare impact of fuel subsidies removal. Section 5, the conclusion, provides some suggestions on the way forward. The results from this work would inform policy dialogue with the Government of Sudan regarding the overall economic reforms that are being considered for stabilization of the economy.

Energy --- Energy and Poverty Alleviation --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers To Poor --- Taxation and Subsidies

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Using the most recent household survey data, this paper examines the characteristics of Sudan's labor market as it relates to poverty outcomes. Several important aspects of the labor market are analyzed, including the relationship between labor market indicators and the demographic structure of the population, geographic location, education, and gender. It highlights the significant differences in labor market outcomes depending on the structure and distribution of the population and Sudan's labor market's many challenges across different dimensions, including demography, gender, and geography. The four key messages can be summarized as follows: first, Sudan is at the verge of entering the earl-dividend stage of the demographic transition. Sudan's population, while still very young, is on track to enter into the early-dividend stage of the demographic transition within just a few years, raising the stakes for job creation and investment in human capita. Second, while we find evidence for an increase in employment and labor force participation at the national level, this increase seems to be driven by seasonal labor in agriculture and increasing economic hardship, respectively. In urban areas, however, unemployment increased sharply, especially among youth. And despite the overall increase in employment and labor force participation, Sudan's labor market still underperforms in comparison to its peers. Third, Sudan's labor market is characterized by large gender disparities, including in terms of employment opportunities and pay. Finally, we find no signs of the beginnings of a structural transformation over the time-period author study; agriculture remains the mainstay of a large majority of employed Sudanese. Rather, labor productivity and real wages outside of agriculture declined markedly between 2009 and 2014, especially in sectors with links to the oil economy. The paper offers policy insights to enhance the role of the labor market in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Sudan, key among which are 1) encouraging private sector growth, 2) overcoming gender discrimination in the labor market, 3) investing in agriculture and re-storing price incentives, and 4) further expanding access to quality education.

Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Education --- Food Security --- Gender --- Incentives --- Inequality --- Labor Market --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Labor Markets --- Social Protections and Labor

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The Sudanese economy has faced several shocks over the years, sometimes resulting in devastating impacts on the economy and the welfare of Sudanese households. The sources of these shocks vary, ranging from weather-related shocks such as droughts and floods to the global financial crisis and commodity price hikes. In the absence of effective social protection programs, exposure of households to frequent shocks lowers their ability to escape poverty, pushing households slightly above the poverty line back into poverty and sliding poor households deeper into poverty. This paper applies this framework to examine the impact of shocks on the welfare of Sudanese households and explore coping strategies typically utilized by households to mitigate the negative effects of shocks. The paper uses the 2009 National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and the 2014-15 National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) to document the main types of shocks that Sudanese households are exposed to and describe the profile of Sudanese households likely to be vulnerable and/or resilient to shocks. To complement this analysis, the paper uses the most recent round of the data collected in 2014/15 (containing information on idiosyncratic shocks) together with data on covariate shocks such as rainfall and conflict obtained from other sources to estimate the impact of shocks on household welfare. Since the impact of shocks on household welfare is likely to be multidimensional, various indicators of household welfare such as consumption, poverty status, assets, dietary quality, and diversity are considered in the paper. Results from the analysis are used to highlight the state of social protection in Sudan and discuss the need for an expansion of the existing system.

Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Environment --- Inequality --- Natural Disasters --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Rainfall --- Resilience

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The objective of this note is to assess the extent to which the CT program is benefiting intended poor households and the appropriateness of the benefit level under the current inflation situation for poverty reduction. This assessment is needed now more than ever as the impending reforms will require having an appropriate system in place for social safety net delivery for the poor and vulnerable. If CT programs are to reach and aid the poor, then ensuring a correlation between poverty and program beneficiaries must be prioritized. Are current beneficiaries of the Sudan CT program, poor households? If targeting is weak, and the answer to the question is no, then scaling up the existing CT program may not achieve its poverty reduction objective. The note proceeds as follows. Section two presents an overview of Sudan's CT program, including background details, targeting approach used, the number of beneficiaries and the cash transfer amount. Section three shows the extent to which the CT program is benefiting intended poor households based on evidence from the latest household survey data. Section four evaluates the value of the cash transfer, proposing a correct amount required to lift households out of poverty. Section five concludes this note, and additionally, proposes a number of policy recommendations.

Cash Transfers --- Inequality --- Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers To Poor --- Social Protections and Labor

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section two describes the state of the rural population in Sudan, by first discussing the spatial distribution of poverty across the states as well as changes in poverty levels between 2009 and 2014-15. It also describes the profile of poor rural households using characteristics such as their incomes, consumption, and assets. Section three focuses on the practice of agriculture in Sudan. It documents the agriculture-specific characteristics of households, such as choice of crops, use of inputs, irrigation, plot size, and credit access. We use these characteristics to illustrate the profile of rural farmers in Sudan and identify differences between poor and non-poor farmers. Section four describes agricultural yields across Sudan and relates these measures of farm productivity to the previously described farm characteristics to identify constraints to agricultural productivity. Section five concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy recommendations.

Access To Finance --- Agricultural Extension --- Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage --- Agricultural Productivity --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Agriculture and Farming Systems --- Crops --- Crops and Crop Management Systems --- Inequality --- Irrigation --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction