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This paper investigates the role of digitialization in improving economic resilience. Using balance sheet data from 24,000 firms in 75 countries, and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that firms in industries that are more digitalized experience lower revenue losses following recessions. Early data since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest an even larger effect during the resulting recessions. These results are robust across a wide range of digitalization measures—such as ICT input and employment shares, robot usage, online sales, intangible assets and digital skills listed on online profiles—and several alternative specifications.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Diseases: Contagious --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Health Behavior --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Information technology industries --- Economic growth --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Technology --- general issues --- Digitalization --- Economic recession --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Information technology --- Recessions --- Communicable diseases

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This paper estimates the scarring effect of recessions on corporates’ investment and how it is amplified by the level of corporate debt. Our results suggest that the effect of firms’ debt in shaping the response of investment to recessions is statistically significant and economically sizeable, with high debt firms seeing a larger decline in investment than low debt firms. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that firms’ debt accounts for at least 28 percent of the average medium-term decline of investment following a recession. This effect is especially larger for firms that are credit constrained—small and less profitable firms, as well as firms with high share of short-term debt—and that therefore may find it more difficult to rollover or raise new funds to invest in new projects. The results are robust to several checks, including to various sub-samples, alternative measures of recessions and explanatory variables, and a large set of controls.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic growth --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic recession --- Capital spending --- Expenditure --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Recessions --- Capital investments --- Portugal

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We develop a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is an empirical measure of how restrictive official government policy is towards the international flow of goods and services. MATR is simple, ad hoc, plausible, quantitative, easily updated, based solely on policy-relevant measures of trade policy, and covers an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries annually between 1949 and 2019. MATR is strongly correlated with, but more comprehensive than, existing measures of openness and trade policy existing measures. We use MATR to show that trade restrictions are harmful for the economy and lead to significant contractions in output.

United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Economic Integration --- Trade: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Trade barriers --- International trade --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Trade policy --- Imports --- Exports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial policy --- Tariff

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This paper revisits the transmission of monetary policy by constructing a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks for an unbalanced sample of 33 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1991Q2-2023Q2. Our findings reveal that tightening monetary policy swiftly and negatively impacts economic activity, but the effects on inflation and inflation expectations takes time to fully materialize. Notably, there exist significant heterogeneities in the transmission of monetary policy across countries and time, depending on structural characteristics and cyclical conditions. Across countries, monetary policy is more effective in countries with flexible exchange rate regime, more developed financial systems, and credible monetary policy frameworks. In addition, we find that monetary policy transmission is stronger when uncertainty is low, financial conditions are tight and monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy—that is, when the stances move in the same direction.

Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Central bank transparency --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Central banks --- Consumer price indexes --- Currency crises --- Currency --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Energy prices --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation --- Informal sector --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International Business Cycles --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices