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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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In the presence of risk and uncertainty, measures such as poverty rates are inadequate to analyze the well-being of poor households. The poor are not only concerned about the current low levels of their income or consumption, but also the likelihood of experiencing stressful declines in these levels in the future. Risks to livelihood are particularly important in rural areas where there is generally high dependence on agriculture and the environment. In this study, the author analyzes the nature, extent, and causes of rural vulnerability in Serbia using panel national household data from the 2002 and 2003 Serbia Living Standard Surveys. He measures rural vulnerability as a function of nonstochastic determinants of poverty as well as exposure to risk. While low levels of consumption (poverty) explain about 70 percent of vulnerability, the author identifies risk and uncertainty as crucial dimensions of rural life in accounting for the remaining 30 percent of household vulnerability. Households and regions with a greater share of their livelihood depending on agricultural activities are more at risk of vulnerability than those with a significantly higher share of their income coming from nonagricultural sources. Dependence on agricultural income is directly associated with higher aggregate risk, underscoring the agricultural sector's lopsided exposure to covariate shocks in general, and the negative impact of the 2003 drought in particular. Rural vulnerability to poverty and risk is also strongly associated with asset ownership and access to markets to mobilize them in time of need.

Access To Markets --- Agricultural Sector --- Covariate Shocks --- Drought --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Vulnerability --- Household Welfare --- Human Development --- Income --- Measures --- Poor --- Poor Households --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Measures --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Risks --- Rural --- Rural Areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Life --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Rural Vulnerability

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While the Azerbaijan household income and expenditure survey (HIES) data satisfy most empirical regularities expected in a typical household survey data, the unequality measures based on the data are unusually low. For example, for the latest three years for which we have data (2002 - 2004), the consumption Gini coefficient (the commonly used summary measure of inequality) is in the range of 16 - 18 percent. This is among the lowest Gini coefficients ever observed in any country, and is extremely low even with the standard of countries generally considered as most equal in the world. Azerbaijan, a transitional economy with a significant natural resource base, is unlikely to be the most equal country in the world. The objective of this paper is to investigate why inequality measures are unusually low in the Azerbaijan household survey data. The author presents a methodology for diagnosing and identifying the potential sources of low inequality in the data, including cluster analysis at the primary sampling unit level. The main inference from the findings of the cluster analysis is that the observed low inequality indices are not due to poor supervision of the interviewers and the data collection process. The author finds that the main culprits for the observed low inequality in the HIES data are (1) the low participation rates of wealthy households in the household surveys, and (2) the widespread availability of well-targeted public and private transfers.

Consumption --- Consumption Expenditures --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Food Consumption --- Household Consumption --- Household Income --- Household Survey --- Household Surveys --- Human Development --- Income On Food --- Inequality --- Macroeconomic Stability --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Measures --- Per Capita Consumption --- Poor --- Poverty --- Poverty Analysis --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Transfers --- Rural --- Rural Areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping

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Using for the first time household survey data from 26 post-Communist countries, covering the period 1990-2005, this paper examines correlates of unprecedented increases in inequality registered by most of the economies. The analysis shows, after controlling for country fixed effects and type of survey used, that economic reform is strongly negatively associated with the income share of the bottom decile, and positively with the income shares of the top two deciles. However, breaking economic reform into its component parts, the picture is more nuanced. Large-scale privatization and infrastructure reform (mostly consisting of privatization and higher fees) are responsible for the pro-inequality effect; small-scale privatization tends to raise the income shares of the bottom deciles. Acceleration in growth is also pro-rich. But democratization is strongly pro-poor, as is lower inflation. Somewhat surprisingly, the analysis finds no evidence that greater government spending as share of gross domestic income reduces inequality.

Country fixed effects --- Debt Markets --- Distribution of income --- Economic reform --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Globalization --- Income --- Inequality --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Labor markets --- Liberalization --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market economy --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Privatization --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Transition countries