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Kings and rulers. --- Rurik, House of. --- Europe --- Kievan Rus --- History --- Kings and rulers
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This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Output gap --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Potential output --- Production --- Economic theory --- Prices --- Interest rates --- United States
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This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Oil prices --- Output gap --- Real exchange rates --- Potential output --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States
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This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Banking --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Real interest rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Production --- Economic theory --- Prices --- Interest rates --- United States
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