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Book
Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1463901763 1462383939 1283565560 9786613878014 1462382940 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group.


Book
How commodity price curves and inventories react to a short-run scarcity shock
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462332528 1455273872 1283570130 9786613882585 1455209805 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable equilibrium. We find evidence that the adjustment is somewhat consistent with well-known theoretical models, such as Pindyck (2001); in other words, spot prices rise and then fall, while inventories are used to absorb the shock. Importantly, the pace and nature of the adjustment depends upon whether inventories were initially high or low, which introduces significant nonlinearities into the adjustment process.

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