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The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Production --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Poland, Republic of
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We propose a fiscal rule that fulfills a specific debt reduction objective while maintaining significant fiscal flexibility-two overarching concerns in Israel. Not unlike the Swiss "debt brake," the rule incorporates an error-correction mechanism (ECM) through which departure from the debt objective affects binding medium-run expenditure ceilings. Two variants of our ECM rule are shown to be superior to a comparable deficit rule in terms of attaining the debt objective and allowing for fiscal stabilization while supporting medium-term expenditure planning. Given its relative sophistication, a proper implementation of the ECM rule requires supportive fiscal institutions, including independent input and assessment.
Debts, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Expenditure --- Fiscal rules --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditures, Public --- Budget --- Israel
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The Selected Issues paper on Poland underlies that as the only European Union economy to avoid outright recession during the crisis, Poland is likely to attract renewed risk appetite. Poland could become one of the main recipients of capital inflows. This could lead to excessive exchange-rate appreciation, which would undermine competitiveness. The volatility of capital flows into Poland has been lower during both the boom and crisis periods, in part owing to timely introduction in the boom period of countercyclical macroprudential measures.
Economic policy -- Poland. --- International finance. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Accounting --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Fiscal Policy --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Capital inflows --- Fiscal stance --- Financial statements --- Balance of payments --- Fiscal policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public debt --- Capital movements --- Finance, Public --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Poland, Republic of --- Inflation (Finance) --- Poland --- Economic conditions.
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This paper analyzes the monetary policy framework in Kazakhstan. The authorities have been successful in containing inflation in the context of a managed exchange rate regime. Over the past two years, the central bank has taken steps to enhance its ability to regulate liquidity in the financial system. However, the current policy interest rate does not properly signal the stance of policy, reflected in a weak transmission from the policy rate to money market interest rates. With the use of a stylized model, the paper studies the macro determinants of money market interest rates under the current framework, and illustrates both the benefits and challenges of active interest rate policy. The model shows that limited use of instruments to steer short-term interest rates weakens the framework’s ability to counteract shocks. Finally, the paper explores the implications of varying degrees of exchange rate flexibility for interest rate policy and open market operations.
Monetary policy --- Interest rates --- Money market --- Foreign exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Money markets --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Interest --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Rates --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Banking --- Currency --- Short term interest rates --- Open market operations --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Financial services --- Central banks --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Banks and banking --- Kazakhstan, Republic of
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The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Output gap --- Central bank policy rate --- Inflation targeting --- Price stabilization --- Prices --- Production --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- Government policy --- Indonesia
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The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
Indonesia --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Output gap --- Central bank policy rate --- Inflation targeting --- Price stabilization --- Prices --- Production --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- Government policy
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Fiscal consolidation has become an important policy prescription for many emerging market countries (EMCs), particularly for the highly indebted ones. Although prudent fiscal policies tend to reduce vulnerabilities, their implementation is usually postponed. This paper represents, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first attempts in the literature to quantify the costs of delaying fiscal consolidation in an EMC. In particular, using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM), we find that early consolidation through expenditure cuts would result in a substantial increase in Israel's long-term output growth relative to the case with delayed fiscal adjustment. Using an alternative fiscal instrument, we find that delaying tax cuts would result in cumulative real GDP that is much larger than otherwise.
Economic stabilization -- Israel. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Israel. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Fiscal policy --- Economic stabilization --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Macroeconomics --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Public debt --- Fiscal consolidation --- Expenditure --- Government debt management --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Israel
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We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Real exchange rates --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Monetary policy --- Vietnam
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We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
Vietnam --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Real exchange rates --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Monetary policy
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In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Commonwealth Of Independent States --- Business Cycles --- Russia (Federation) --- Former Soviet Republics --- History --- Business & Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Externalities --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Spillovers --- Oil prices --- Exchange rates --- Depreciation --- Currencies --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Money --- National accounts --- International finance --- Saving and investment --- Russian Federation
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