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With international production fragmentation, countries specialize in activities along the production chain rather than particular products. This paper therefore analyzes export diversification taking an activity perspective. It measures export activities combining new data on the export income of workers in industries cross classified by occupational classes. Based on the panel data, the paper documents that countries initially specialize along the extensive margin (shifting activities across industries) but later on along the intensive margin (shifting activities across occupational classes). New activity specialization is found to be strongly related to the proximity of this activity to the initial export basket. Yet, countries that defy proximity appear to grow faster. The results show that an activity perspective delivers novel insights into trade development and structural change.

Climate change.

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This working paper draws from the joint World Bank and World Meteorological Organization / Global Water Partnership Integrated Drought Management Program (IDMP) work stream on benefits of action and costs of inaction (BACI) for drought preparedness and mitigation. It suggests a methodological framework for assessment of BACI as a tool to support a shift in drought policy and programs from crisis management to a risk management approach. The framework should be systematic enough to allow for comparability across countries and contexts, with the option of being tailored to the context in which it is being used. In proposing an initial framework for BACI analysis, the authors use the ten-step methodology for developing drought strategies that was created by Wilhite and others and subsequently codified by IDMP to help organize the assessment. In this way, the authors embed the BACI assessment in the overall development of a drought risk management strategy. This document is a first approach to guide those responsible for drought management and BACI assessments to ask the right questions at the different stages. Key next steps are to experiment with this draft approach by applying it in multiple contexts to test its usability and to develop more case study examples to showcase how this process can be undertaken and how it can be advantageous to stimulate positive action.

Cost-Benefit Analysis --- Drought Management --- Environment --- Natural Disasters --- Risk Management --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Management