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In 1986 the and#x0189;oi Moi reform changed the economic and social policies in Vietnam, triggering steep economic growth and the shift from a low- to a middle-income economy. In parallel to the economic growth, Vietnam also experienced rapid social and demographic change, which resulted in modified consumption behavior. This paper estimates a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, obtaining income and own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 groups of goods and services that can contribute to the further economic development of Vietnam. To control for potential bias generated by unobserved quality substitution and endogenous unit values, the analysis adopts an instrumental variable method. The results show that household equipment, clothing and accessories, telecommunication, transport, and medical and health services are responsive to income changes, while food, foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco, education, and electricity are income inelastic. Moreover, the analysis detects complementarity between education and the rest of the goods and services, and substitution between health care and household equipment, clothing, and telecommunication services. These results help in understanding recent socioeconomic development patterns in Vietnam and provide updated evidence to support business decisions and economic policy planning.
Demand System --- Endogeneity --- Household Survey --- Industrial Economics --- Industry --- Instrumental Variables --- Price Elasticity --- Quaids --- Quality Substitution
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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are economy-wide simulation tools that can be very useful in answering the policy questions related to closing gender gaps. They allow us to estimate the contributions of gender-inclusive policies, quantify costs and benefits of associated reforms for policy prioritization, identify winners and losers of suggested reforms, and understand transmission channels. They also allow us to estimate distributional and sectoral impact of economy-wide shock such as the containment measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus). This note provides a brief overview of computable general equilibrium model-based analysis in the context of gender-inclusive policies. The purpose of this note is to familiarize non-CGE modelers with this tool and advance discussion on how results derived from it can be used to aid policy dialogue and enhance the design and implementation of gender activities in operations, leading to more gender-inclusive economies and sustainable results for women on the ground. The note covers what the World Bank has been doing on this front, data requirements for such analysis, and how to chart the way forward.
Computable General Equilibrium --- Economic Theory and Research --- Employment and Unemployment --- Gender --- Gender and Economics --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Sustainable Development Goals
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This paper uses computable general equilibrium model-based simulations to assess the gender dimensions of the impact of COVID-19 on economic outcomes, that is, labor force participation, employment, wages, and earnings. It leverages the 2020 High-Frequency Phone Survey in Chad to assess the impact of COVID-19 on female-headed households, which comprise 23 percent of the country's households. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a disproportionately higher negative impact on women in urban areas. The simulation results suggest that more women than men working in paid jobs might lose their jobs. Although the paper focuses on the impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the findings can be generalized as the hysteresis effects might be deeper and more prolonged if the pandemic is more prolonged. The situation is potentially dire, especially in service sectors, where most women are employed in urban areas. Moreover, the High-Frequency Phone Survey shows that COVID-19 has notably impacted the households' income from enterprises and suggests that this negative impact is more prevalent for female-headed households. Although male- and female-headed households are using common coping strategies during the pandemic, female-headed households in rural and urban areas have been more reliant on aid from family and friends and less reliant on savings, credit, or the sale of assets.
CGE Model --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Economic Impact --- Employment and Unemployment --- Female Labor Force Participation --- Female-Headed Household --- Gender --- Gender and Development --- Gender and Economics --- Gender and Poverty --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Income Loss --- Inequality --- Pandemic Impact --- Phone Survey --- Poverty Reduction --- Wage Gap
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Armenia has made significant progress in improving population health outcomes over the past two decades. However, essential health care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is underutilized in part due to the cost of access. Armenia has also committed as a signatory to the Sustainable Development Goals, to making progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This commitment involves guaranteeing access to essential health care for all its citizens. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed a concept note for the introduction for Universal Health Insurance that proposes to mobilize additional revenue through payroll taxes or higher budgetary allocations to the sector. However, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has noted that revenue mobilization options should ideally demonstrate positive returns in terms of economic growth and employment. Therefore, at the request of the MoH, the World Bank has modeled the macroeconomic impacts of options to increase domestic resource mobilization to finance universal access to essential health services in the basic benefits package. The analysis assumes that through UHC reforms that mobilize additional public spending, the government would cover the cost of ninety-five percent of household needs for health care from 2021 to 2050, and that the increase in the demand for care will be supported by improvements in supply-side efficiency. The results suggest that increasing direct taxes is better than increasing indirect taxes as the former are less distortionary and cause smaller allocative inefficiencies.
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Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.
Agricultural production --- Agricultural uses --- Climate change --- Common Property Resource Development --- Competition for water --- Economic Theory and Research --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Sectoral water --- Town Water Supply and Sanitation --- Water and Industry --- Water availability --- Water Conservation --- Water management --- Water resource --- Water Resources --- Water resources --- Water Supply and Sanitation --- Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions --- Water Supply and Systems --- Water Use
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Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.
Agricultural production --- Agricultural uses --- Climate change --- Common Property Resource Development --- Competition for water --- Economic Theory and Research --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Sectoral water --- Town Water Supply and Sanitation --- Water and Industry --- Water availability --- Water Conservation --- Water management --- Water resource --- Water Resources --- Water resources --- Water Supply and Sanitation --- Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions --- Water Supply and Systems --- Water Use
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This technical assistance conducts a climate policy diagnostic for Jordan, covering climate adaptation and mitigation policy, as well as enabling institutions. Jordan faces acute challenges of climate-food-water nexus—innovative climate policy approaches are key, given limited fiscal space. While Jordan needs to strengthen the investment climate for climate investment through streamlining existing policies and alleviating critical barriers, making social policy more shock-responsive and strengthening risk management can go a long way in building resilience. As climate-related risks globally intensify, the government is encouraged to move toward a risk-informed policy and financing strategy.
Climate change --- Climate finance --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Environment --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Economics: General --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Fiscal policy --- Global Warming --- Green finance / sustainable finance --- History of Thought: Macroeconomics --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International Organizations --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Redistributive Effects --- Regulation and Industrial Policy: General --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Jordan
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