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The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) recently launched a strategy for developing and employing robotics, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence (RAS-AI) to be delivered through a campaign plan. A RAND Australia research team is supporting the RAN in this endeavour by building an evidence base to help identify and shape the underpinning activities. This report provides an overview of the current landscape and trajectory of maritime RAS-AI technologies in the near and long term (out to 2040) and a high-level review of the missions that might be possible in the near, medium, and long terms in light of relevant technological and non-technological enablers. Rather than examining the wider integration of artificial intelligence in maritime operations, this report focuses on advances in missions and technologies underpinning uncrewed platforms, including uncrewed aerial, surface, and underwater vehicles. In addition to outlining the key technological enablers for near- and long-term RAS-AI missions, the report points to three key principles that should be taken into account in RAS-AI capability development: (1) a focus on the interaction of multiple technologies (both new and 'legacy' systems) rather than a single technological solution; (2) consideration of complementary advances in defence and commercial RAS-AI systems; and (3) monitoring of non-technical factors, such as evolving regulatory, legal, policy and ethical frameworks that might significantly shape future technology adoption pathways.

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The Royal Australian Navy has embarked on an ambitious plan to modernise its maritime capabilities to support Australia's defence strategy. The 2020 Defence Strategic Update calls for Australia to be ready to shape the strategic environment, deter actions against its interests and respond with military force when required. Maritime capabilities feature heavily in the update, including those related to robotics, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence (RAS-AI). The Navy recently established the RAS-AI Directorate, giving it the responsibility of developing a maritime RAS-AI strategic roadmap to provide a path for developing and employing RAS-AI out to 2040. In this report, the authors provide an evidence base to inform the Navy's thinking as it develops its RAS-AI Strategy 2040. Analysing a range of information captured through a literature review, environmental scan, interviews and workshops, the authors make observations that should shape the evolution of the strategy. A framework for the strategy, consisting of the future operational context, potential RAS-AI effects and a high-level technology roadmap, is developed and populated, and objectives for RAS-AI and implementation lines of effort are identified and discussed. For the Navy's RAS-AI strategy to succeed, its implementation needs to be planned in a manner that recognises the evolving environment that the service will contend with over the next two decades.

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The boundaries of rule-based order and global norms are being tested everywhere. Grey-zone tactics, rapid technological change, and the increased frequency and severity of natural and man-made disasters add new pressures to societal stability and prosperity. Regionally, strategic competition within the Indo-Pacific continues to increase. The Australian Government responded to this expanded range of threats in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU20). The policy proposals articulated therein are consistent with modern deterrence and different from Defence's traditional expeditionary methodology. A number of other countries, such as Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, and Singapore, have adopted deterrence positions based on the concept of 'total defence'. This depends on the entire civil community being ready and prepared to mobilise in collaboration with its armed forces but utilising economic, digital, and psychological means, just as much as military, to defend against contemporary threats. The authors suggest that adopting elements of a total defence framework for mobilisation planning would be consistent with the policy proposals in DSU20, as well as with international practice. The authors' comparison extends to the United States, where, through its National Security Strategy, it emphasises similar dimensions to total defence whilst maintaining its expeditionary approach to warfighting. Psychological and societal resilience is important to the success of total defence. The authors propose the development of a strategic narrative to engage and prepare Australian society for the new challenges. They also suggest that risk-based, rather than event-driven, approaches to mobilisation planning may meet the speed and effectiveness required in the new threat landscape.

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The U.S. government has identified quantum technology as important for future U.S. economic prosperity and national security because it could eventually offer groundbreaking new capabilities in information collection, processing, and communication. RAND researchers had previously developed a set of metrics for holistically assessing a nation's industrial base in quantum technology and had applied those metrics to the industrial bases of the United States and China. For this report, the authors used a similar methodology to assess the quantum industrial bases of several other nations. The report begins with a broad look at the entire global quantum ecosystem, and then focuses in more detail on Australia, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK). The authors considered four categories of metrics: scientific research, government support, industry activity, and technical achievement. Whenever possible, they assessed the metrics separately across the three technology application domains of quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing. The report concludes with recommendations for how policymakers could strengthen international collaboration in quantum technology research and development (R&D) between the United States and its allied nations.

Quantum systems --- Quantum systems --- Quantum computing --- Quantum communication --- Photons --- International cooperation.