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This paper introduces a Spatial Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (SVARMA) model in which multiple cross-sectional time series are modeled as multivariate, possibly fat-tailed, spatial autoregressive ARMA processes. The estimation requires specifying the cross-sectional spillover channels through spatial weights matrices. the paper explores a kernel method to estimate the network topology based on similarities in the data. It discusses the model and estimation, focusing on a penalized Maximum Likelihood criterion. The empirical performance of the estimator is explored in a simulation study. The model is used to study a spatial time series of pollution and household expenditure data in Indonesia. The analysis finds that the new model improves in terms of implied density, and better neutralizes residual correlations than the VARMA, using fewer parameters. The results suggest that growth in household expenditures precedes pollution reduction, particularly after the expenditures of poorer households increase; that increasing pollution is followed by reduced growth in expenditures, particularly reducing the growth of poorer households; and that there are significant spillovers from bottom-up growth in expenditures. The paper does not find evidence for top-down growth spillovers. Feedback between the identified mechanisms may contribute to pollution-poverty traps and the results imply that pollution damages are economically significant.

Air Quality and Clean Air --- Brown Issues and Health --- Environment --- Health Service Management and Delivery --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Impulse Response --- Inequality --- Penalized Inference --- Pollution --- Pollution Management and Control --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Spatial Models

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This monograph provides strategies to increase private-sector employment, including ways to reemploy civil-service workers in the private sector, in the Kurdistan Region - Iraq. Prepared for and at the request of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), this monograph is based on a variety of research methods and analyses. These include a review of the existing literature, analyses of survey data, analysis of Kurdistan regional and Iraqi national documents and laws, and a qualitative assessment of numerous conversations with government officials and private-sector employers. The KRG can develop its private sector by removing obstacles to starting or expanding a business, by identifying sectors for which conditions are particularly favorable for private-sector growth and supporting them, and by outsourcing and privatizing some functions that the KRG currently performs. However, private-sector growth does not guarantee that civil-service workers will leave for private-sector employment. Civil-service workers will need the qualifications necessary for private-sector jobs and will have to expect that the benefits of private-sector employment outweigh the benefits of civil-service employment. At the same time, as the KRG devises methods for encouraging civil-service workers to leave for the private sector, a key challenge will be to ensure that the most productive employees stay with the KRG in order to ensure the proper functioning of government.

Civil service --- Public service employment --- Manpower policy --- Economic development --- Government - Non-U.S. --- Law, Politics & Government --- Government - Asia --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Employment policy --- Human resource development --- Labor market --- Labor market policy --- Manpower utilization --- Employment, Public service --- Work relief --- Bureaucrats --- Career government service --- Civil servants --- Government employees --- Government service --- Public employees --- Public service (Civil service) --- Government policy --- Law and legislation --- Legal status, laws, etc. --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Labor policy --- Labor supply --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Economic assistance, Domestic --- Full employment policies --- Public administration --- Public officers --- Kurdistān (Iraq) --- Iraq. --- Iraq --- Economic policy. --- Bilād al-Rāfidayn --- Bilād --- Irak --- Jumhuriyah al Iraqiyah --- Republic of Iraq --- Kordestān (Iraq)