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As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Environmental Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation --- Conflict --- Conflict Resolution --- Alliances --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demographic Economics: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Climate change --- Population & demography --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Environment --- Income --- National accounts --- Consumption --- Population and demographics --- International agencies --- Climatic changes --- Economics --- Population --- Niger

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This paper analyzes the interlinkages between climate shocks, domestic conflicts, and policy resilience in Africa. It builds on a Correlated Random Effect model to asess these interrelationships on a broad sample of 51 African countries over the 1990-2018 period. We find suggestive evidence that climate shocks, as captured through weather shocks, increase the likelihood of domestic conflicts, by as high as up to 38 percent. However, the effect holds only for intercommunal conflicts, not for government-involved conflicts. The effect is maginified in countries with more unequal income distribution and a stronger share of young male demographics. The results are robust to a wide set of sensitivity checks, including using various indicators of weather shocks and domestic conflicts, and alternative estimation techniques. The findings shed light on key policy resilience factors, including steadily improving domestic revenue mobilization, strengthening social protection and access to basic health care services, scaling up public investment in the agriculture sector, and stepping up anti-desertification efforts.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Economics --- Natural Disasters --- Demography --- Natural Resources --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Conflict --- Conflict Resolution --- Alliances --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demographic Economics: General --- Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics --- Environmental and Ecological Economics: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Natural disasters --- Population & demography --- Environmental management --- Environment --- Population and demographics --- Natural resources --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Population

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Financial inclusion can increase economic growth and productivity and reduce poverty and inequality by helping people and firms—particularly SMEs—to save and invest, smooth consumption, and better manage financial risks. This paper highlights Niger’s lag compared to other WAEMU countries in terms of access to and use of formal financial services, including for women and youth, and underscores key demand and supply side challenges to financial inclusion as well as structural impediments. It lays out key priorities for Niger to harness the potential of greater financial inclusion to support the country’s development agenda, including efforts to tackle low financial literacy, promote digitization, and address informality.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Finance: General --- Demography --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Demographic Economics: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Finance --- Population & demography --- Distributed ledgers --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Financial inclusion --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Population and demographics --- Digital financial services --- Technology --- Digital currencies --- International agencies --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Population --- Niger

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Niger’s exposure to recurrent shocks, including climate shocks, increases its vulnerability to food insecurity. This paper aims to quantify the combined effects of climate shocks and food insecurity on key economic variables and identify the most effective mitigation policy responses using a general equilibrium model. Results indicate that rural households would be the most affected by a climate shock resulting in a decline in domestic agricultural production, which would reduce their consumption, erode their capital, and thus increase urban-rural inequalities. Simulations show that cash transfers and the reduction of internal mobility costs appear to be more effective in mitigating the impact on households of a climate shock on agricultural production.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics --- Agriculture & Food Policy --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General --- Agricultural Policy --- Food Policy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Climate change --- Poverty & precarity --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Environment --- Food security --- Poverty --- Income --- International agencies --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Niger