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Low temperature research --- Basses températures --- Recherche

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Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.

Planning. --- Hypothesis. --- Assumption --- Supposition --- Logic --- Reasoning --- Science --- Creation (Literary, artistic, etc.) --- Executive ability --- Management --- Organization --- Methodology --- Business, Economy and Management --- Business Management

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This report documents the five steps of a strategic planning methodology (Assumption-Based Planning) RAND has developed over the last four years, provides examples of the methodology (showing its application in an end-to-end exemplar of the Army's long-range planning exercise -- Army 21), and suggests some lessons learned from the applications. The five steps of the methodology are (1) identifying important assumptions underlying an organization's operations or plans; (2) identifying assumption vulnerabilities within the planning horizon; (3) defining signposts (i.e., indicators or warning signs of a change in an assumption's vulnerability); (4) defining shaping actions (actions taken to avert or cause the failure of an assumption); and (5) defining hedging actions (actions taken to better prepare for the failure of an assumption). The document compares ABP with other methodologies and argues that the methodology provides a systematic way of thinking about and dealing with a future containing fundamental uncertainties about an organization's ends.

Military planning --- United States. --- Organization. --- Planning.

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Combat --- Chaotic behavior in systems. --- Computer simulation.

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This report examines the intelligence needs of three groups of Army long-range planners--strategic planners, force developers, and acquisition--and considers the potential of Army intelligence to satisfy these needs. Data collected from interviews, workshops, and case studies discovered disparities in expectations and capabilities that collectively constitute cultural differences between intelligence officers and planners, and that make it difficult for Army intelligence to render fully satisfactory support to long-range planners. The authors recommend specific actions by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence to address Army intelligence's main shortcomings in supporting long-range planning. Sustained interaction of the Army's intelligence experts with its customers will improve the quality of support. Communications technology plays a role here, but the more important task is to make sure that Army intelligence continues to develop high-quality experts with sound reputations among Army planners and in the intelligence field.

Military intelligence --- Military planning --- United States.