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In recent years, an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy has been adopted in a number of industrial countries. This paper discusses the practical issues that have arisen under the operation of the new framework, and highlights five features of the framework: the assignment of the target, the interaction with other policy goals, the definition of the target, accountability and the role of inflation forecasts. The economic performance of the inflation targeting countries thus far is summarized.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Forecasting --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Economic Forecasting --- Inflation targeting --- Economic forecasting --- Consumer price indexes --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Price stabilization --- Banks and banking --- Price indexes --- New Zealand
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This paper extends the analysis of central bank independence to a model in which there is more than one policymaker. It shows that the degree of central bank independence as generally defined in the existing theoretical literature is only one of the influences on macroeconomic performance. The objectives of the fiscal authority, the commitment mechanisms available to the authorities and the nature of the policy game play a key role in determining the inflation rate and output in the economy. Furthermore, the model can be solved for the optimal degree of inflation aversion of the central bank. , a Working Paper and the authors) would welcome any comments on the present text Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the authors), and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public finance & taxation --- Central bank autonomy --- Expenditure --- Central bank organization --- Prices --- Central banks --- Central bank mandate --- Banks and banking --- Expenditures, Public --- New Zealand
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Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Economic growth --- Unemployment rate --- Real interest rates --- Business cycles --- Securities markets --- Prices --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Unemployment --- Interest rates --- Capital market --- United States --- Income economics
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Monetary policy in the Philippines has had multiple objectives. Moreover, shifts in money demand and the money multiplier have made base money a less reliable anchor for monetary policy. Hence, on present policies, a steady reduction in inflation is not assured, and changes to the monetary policy framework should be considered. This paper reviews the benefits as well as the constraints of an inflation targeting framework and the necessary preconditions--both in terms of the institutional infrastructure and the appropriate inflation target--for its successful implementation, including the ability to forecast inflation reasonably well over policy-relevant time horizons.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Forecasting --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Economic Forecasting --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary base --- Exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Money --- Economic forecasting --- Money supply --- Banks and banking --- Philippines
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This paper uses cross-section and panel data to examine the determinants of the current account. The empirics find a significant impact of the stage of development and demographic factors in the cross section. Estimating partial-adjustment and error-correction models using panel data, the paper finds a short- and long-run impact of fiscal policy on the current account in the time series. The real exchange rate, the business cycle and the terms of trade are also shown to have short-run effects on the current account, while the stage of development and demographics have longer-run effects.
Balance of payments --- Current Account Adjustment --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, Public --- Economic policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Exports and Imports --- External position --- Foreign assets --- International economics --- International Investment --- International trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Nternational cooperation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Sovereign Debt --- Terms of trade --- United States
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