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A climate change vulnerability index in agriculture is presented at the municipal level in Mexico. Because the index is built with a multidimensional approach to vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), it represents a tool for policy makers, academics and government alike to inform decisions about climate change resilience and regional variations within the country. The index entails baseline (2005) and prediction (2045) levels based on historic climate data and future-climate modeling. The results of the analysis suggest a wide variation in municipal vulnerability across the country at baseline and prediction points. The vulnerability index shows that highly vulnerable municipalities demonstrate higher climate extremes, which increases uncertainty for harvest periods, and for agricultural yields and outputs. The index shows at baseline that coastal areas host some of the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change in Mexico. However, it also shows that the Northwest and Central regions will likely experience the largest shifts in vulnerability between 2005 and 2045. Finally, vulnerability is found to vary according to specific variables: municipalities with higher vulnerability have more adverse socio-demographic conditions. With the vast municipal data available in Mexico, further sub-index estimations can lead to answers for specific policy and research questions.

Climatic changes.

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This paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least squares regression where it first regresses temperature and rainfall (along with geographic controls and state and year fixed effects) on municipal gross domestic product per capita for 2000 and 2005 The resulting gross domestic product per capita is used in a second equation to estimate municipal poverty on the same years. The authors then incorporate projections of temperature and rainfall changes by 2030 into the estimated climate-gross domestic product coefficients to assess the effects of climate change in economic activity and how this in turn will influence poverty. At the same time, they account for the potential adaptive capacity of municipalities through higher population densities and economic growth. Both would reduce poverty by 31.72 percentage points between 2005 and 2030 with changing climate. However, poverty could have been reduced up to 34.15 percentage points over the same period had there been no climate change. This suggests that climate change slows down the pace of poverty reduction. An alternative reading is that poverty is expected to increase from 15.25 percent (without climate change) to 17.68 percent (with climate change) by 2030. Given the existing population projections for 2030, this represents 2,902,868 people remaining in poverty as a result of climate change.

Climate Change --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Social Development --- Mexico

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Throughout many countries in the world, the measurement of food security currently includes accounting for the importance of perception and anxiety about meeting basic food needs. Using panel data from Malawi, this paper shows that worrying about food security is linked to self-reports of having experienced food insecurity, and the analysis provides evidence that rapidly rising food prices are a source of the anxiety and experiences of food insecurity. This finding controls for individual-level fixed effects and changes in the economic well-being of the individual. A particularly revealing finding of the importance of accounting for anxiety in assessing food insecurity is that individuals report a significant increase in experiences of food insecurity in the presence of rapidly rising food prices even when dietary diversity and caloric intake is stable.

Agriculture --- Anxiety --- Food Prices --- Food Security --- Living Standards Measurement Study --- LSMs --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Psychology --- Rural Development --- Stability