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This paper investigates the accuracy of recall data by comparing administrative records with retrospective, self-reported survey responses to income and asset questions for a sample of self-employed households from coastal India. It finds that the magnitude of the recall error increases over time, in part because respondents rely less on memory and instead infer earnings based on past earnings. Individuals tend to recall monthly earnings more accurately when they are higher than the median. These results imply that the variance estimated from the self-reported earnings distribution will be lower than the real one. The paper also finds that data reported by income earners are more accurate than those by their wives. In addition, the use of time cues can worsen accuracy if they are not relevant to the respondent. Where the recall questions are placed in the two-hour long survey, however, does not affect accuracy.

Access to Finance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Educational Sciences --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Measurement error --- Private Sector Development --- Recall error --- Self-employment --- Statistical & Mathematical Sciences --- Telescoping

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Over the past decades, East Asia and Pacific's productivity has been gradually catching up with the frontier (the United States), with China leading the pack. Productivity growth has been driven by sustained within-sector productivity growth. Reallocation of labor to sectors with higher productivity, such as industry and services, also contributed to productivity improvements. Nevertheless, resource misallocation remains. Firm-level evidence from four East Asia and Pacific countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) suggests that resource misallocation across firms within a sector is large, albeit declining over time. Private domestic firms and firms with higher productivity face larger distortions.

Agriculture --- Business cycles and stabilization policies --- Common carriers industry --- Construction industry --- Distortions --- Food and beverage industry --- Food security --- General manufacturing --- Industry --- Inequality --- International economics and trade --- International trade and trade rules --- Labor markets --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Plastics and rubber industry --- Poverty --- Poverty reduction --- Productivity --- Pulp and paper industry --- Resource misallocation --- Social protections and labor --- Textiles apparel and leather industry

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This paper examines the impacts of U.S.-China trade tensions via the lens of East Asian stock markets. Studying 10 indices of the main East Asian stock markets, it finds that announcements of "trade war" escalation translated into 50 to 60 percent of the total declines in two major Chinese stock markets over the first eight months of 2018. In other words, in the absence of the "trade war" Asian stocks would have experienced half the decline, or they would have registered gains.

Event Study --- International Economics and Trade --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Stock Returns --- Trade Finance and Investment --- Trade Policy --- Trade Wars

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Foreign banks can play an important role in facilitating international trade. Most research has focused on the financing role banks can play, but less is known about the information role. This paper estimates a gravity model using sub-regional data from Turkey between 2002 and 2010 to explore whether foreign banks promote trade through the information channel. The presence of a foreign banks from a trade partner promote the exports of the sub-region. In addition, the analysis finds that the footprint of these foreign banks matters more for exports than the presence of these banks and the level of financial development of the sub-region. Banks from countries neighboring trade partners can also decrease exports. When taking into account financial conditions and examining the differential impacts during the recent financial crisis, the analysis finds that the footprint of foreign banks has the largest impact on trade.

Credit Constraints --- Foreign Banks --- Regional Development --- Trade

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This paper examines whether political connections ease financial constraints faced by firms. Using firm-level data from six Central and Eastern European economies, the paper shows that politically connected firms: (i) have high levels of leverage, (ii) have low levels of profitability, (iii) are less capitalized, (iv) have low marginal productivity of capital, and (v) do not invest more than unconnected firms. Next, the paper shows that connected firms borrow more because they have easier access to credit and that political connections lead to a misallocation of capital. The results are consistent with the idea that political connections distort capital allocation and may have welfare costs.

Allocative Efficiency --- Corruption --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Constraints --- Financial Regulation and Supervision --- Governance --- Investment --- Marginal Product of Capital --- Misallocation of Capital --- Political Connections --- Politically Exposed Persons --- Public Sector Development --- Return On Asset