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This book seeks to balance normative prescriptions on fiscal policy with its practical aspects in the context of the Indian scenario. In doing so, it brings together views of leading experts from academic and policy spheres. It highlights the specificities of Indian fiscal policy and studies current issues like the impact of development expenditures, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the challenge of reducing subsidies and different aspects of political economy. India's Fiscal Policy discusses rapid developments in the field following the fiscal stimulus of 2008, subsequent attempts at fiscal consolidation and the formation of the NDA government. It focuses on policy and political considerations and adopts a wider approach for the analysis of fiscal policy by taking into consideration aspects such as the effectiveness and targeting of social expenditures, which are essential for a critical analysis of the Indian policy matrix.

Fiscal policy --- Finance, Public

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This paper examines the influence of sovereign credit ratings and relative risk ratings on private capital flows to 26 emerging and frontier market economies, using quarterly data for 1998-2017. A dynamic panel regression model is used to estimate the relationship between ratings and capital flows after controlling for other factors that can influence capital flows, such as growth and interest rate differentials and global risk conditions. The analysis finds that while absolute ratings were an important determinant of net capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of relative risk ratings increased in the post-crisis period, which was characterized by easy monetary policies and global liquidity, on the one hand, and greater caution and discretion on the part of investors on the other. The post-crisis effect of relative ratings appears to be driven mostly by portfolio flows. These findings imply that emerging and frontier markets need to pay greater attention to their relative economic performance and not just their sovereign ratings. Tracking changes in relative ratings could help predict macroeconomic disturbances resulting from volatile portfolio capital movements.

Capital Flows --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Market Economies --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Frontier Markets --- Private Capital Flows --- Sovereign Bond Market --- Sovereign Credit Rating

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This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, whereas it deteriorated in crisis-affected high-income countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Egypt. Interestingly, India, Jordan, Poland, and the United Kingdom had their rating outlook downgraded by the rating agencies, but their relative rating actually improved as other countries suffered even worse downgrades. A regression model is used to analyze the relative contributions of different variables to rating changes during 2008-2012, a helpful feature for policy makers interested in improving sovereign ratings.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Country Risk --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Development Finance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Global Financial Crisis --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Sovereign Rating