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This paper uses a dynamic economy model, with unionized labor markets, to analyze the effects of labor market reforms, similar to those recently introduced in Germany, on the domestic and trading partner economies. The model is calibrated on Germany and the rest of the Euro area. The results indicate that German labor market reforms have positive spillover effects on the rest of the Euro area, which operate through the channel of trade, relative price adjustment, and financial market integration. Compared to a competitive labor market, setting, unionization dampens the positive response of the domestic economy and magnifies the spillover effects.
Labor market --- Labor unions --- International trade --- Econometric models. --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Industrial unions --- Labor, Organized --- Labor organizations --- Organized labor --- Trade-unions --- Unions, Labor --- Unions, Trade --- Working-men's associations --- Supply and demand --- Markets --- Labor movement --- Societies --- Central labor councils --- Guilds --- Syndicalism --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Labor markets --- Consumption --- Terms of trade --- Economic theory --- Economics --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Germany --- Income economics --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper explores the interaction between corporate ownership concentration and private savings, and by extension, the current account balance in Germany. As high corporate savings largely reflected capital income accruing to wealthy households and increasingly retained in closely-held firms, the buildup of external imbalances in Germany has been accompanied by widening top income inequality, rising private savings and compressed consumption rates. Rising corporate profits in an environment of high business wealth concentration account for 90 percent of the rise in the private savings rate and a third of the increase in the German current account surplus over 1999–2016.
Macroeconomics --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Income inequality --- Income --- Private savings --- Income distribution --- Disposable income --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- National income --- Germany
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This paper explores the interaction between corporate ownership concentration and private savings, and by extension, the current account balance in Germany. As high corporate savings largely reflected capital income accruing to wealthy households and increasingly retained in closely-held firms, the buildup of external imbalances in Germany has been accompanied by widening top income inequality, rising private savings and compressed consumption rates. Rising corporate profits in an environment of high business wealth concentration account for 90 percent of the rise in the private savings rate and a third of the increase in the German current account surplus over 1999–2016.
Germany --- Macroeconomics --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Income inequality --- Income --- Private savings --- Income distribution --- Disposable income --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- National income
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We examine the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral and regional employment in China from 1980 to 2008. In contrast to theoretical predictions, employment in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors contracts following a real appreciation. Our results are robust across different sub-samples, levels of sectoral disaggregation, and are more pronounced for regions with higher export exposure. We attribute our findings to the importance of services as intermediate input in exportable production. We test this channel of exchange rate transmission using regional input-output tables linked with employment data at the region-sector level. The results of this paper have important implications for China's labor market adjustment should the Chinese RMB strengthen in the future. To mitigate the costs of short-run labor market adjustment, appropriate demand management and structural reforms in the non-traded sectors should play an important role.
Foreign exchange rates --- Employment (Economic theory) --- Labor market --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Economics --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Econometric models. --- Supply and demand --- Rates --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exports --- International trade --- Economic theory --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007–09. We assess the human cost of increased unemployment by surveying what is known about the effects of past recessions. If past is prologue, the cost to the unemployed (and society) could be high. The focus of this paper is on advanced economies. To their credit, most countries mounted strong policy responses to minimize the human costs, and the policy actions were notable also for their consistency and coherence across countries.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- United States --- Income economics
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Using cross-country national accounts and firm-level data, we document a broad-based trend in rising gross saving and net lending of non-financial corporates across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, though most pronounced in countries with persistent current account surpluses. We find that this trend holds consistently across major industries, and is concentrated among large firms, driven by rising profitability, lower financing costs, and reduced tax rates. At the same time, higher gross corporate saving have not supported a commensurate increase in fixed capital investment, but instead led to a build-up of liquid financial assets (cash). The determinants of corporate cash holding and saving are also broad-based across countries, with the growth in assets of large firms, R&D intensity, and lower effective tax rates accounting for most of the increase over the last 15 years.
Corporations --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate finance --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Finance. --- Accounting --- Corporate Finance --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Management of Technological Innovation and R&D --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Currencies --- Liquidity indicators --- National accounts --- Corporate sector --- Financial statements --- Money --- Liquidity management --- Asset and liability management --- Economic sectors --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Liquidity --- Economics --- National income --- Business enterprises --- Finance, Public --- Germany
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Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving and the current account over the long-run, we also study how these might be affected by differences in the coverage and sustainability of old-age transfer schemes. The model predicts that population structure and life expectancy (which affects the need to save to meet old age consumption) affect current account levels, and that while countries with more generous unfunded transfer schemes tend to have lower saving and more capital inflows over the long-run, this effect may be dampened by natural limits (on taxation) of these schemes. The key predictions of the model are generally supported by a rich panel dataset.
Demography --- Statistical methods. --- Exports and Imports --- Health: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Health economics --- International economics --- Health --- Aging --- Current account --- Capital flows --- Population and demographics --- Balance of payments --- Population aging --- Capital movements --- Population --- China, People's Republic of
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Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of the labor demand shock and instrument KA take-up using the pre-existing, state-specific share of workers eligible for KA. We find, first, that KA was crucial in mitigating unemployment: absent its expansion the unemployment rate would have increased by an additional 3 pp on average at the trough of the recession. Second, KA also bolstered domestic demand: the contraction in consumption could have been 2 to 3 times larger absent the program. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence on the sensitivity of the medium-run reallocation of resources to the prevalence of jobretention schemes during the Global Financial Crisis.
Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Currency crises --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic growth --- Economic theory --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Employment --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Income economics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Informal sector --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Labor Demand --- Labor demand --- Labor Economics Policies --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Manpower policy --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Germany
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We study U.S. labor productivity growth and its drivers since the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor productivity experienced large swings since 2020, due to both compositional and within-industry effects, but has since returned to its pre-pandemic trend. Industry-level panel regressions show that measures of labor market churn are associated with higher productivity growth both in the cross-section and over time. Sectors with higher investment in digitalization, particularly in teleworkable industries, also experience higher productivity growth on average. There has also been an increase in business formation since the pandemic, but its impact on productivity dynamics will likely need more time to be reflected in the data.
Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity --- Employment --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Human Capital --- Income economics --- Industrial productivity --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor Productivity --- Labor productivity --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Occupational Choice --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Productivity --- Skills --- Unemployment --- Wages
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We study the effect of external financing constraint on job creation in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDC) at the firm level by looking at a specific transmission channel - the working capital channel. We develop a simple model to illustrate how the need for working capital financing of a firm affects the link between financial constraint and the firm's job creation. We show that the effect of relaxing financial constraint on job creation is greater the smaller the firm scale and the more labor-intensive its production structure. We use the World Bank Enterprise Surveys data to test the main predictions of the model, and find strong evidence for the working capital channel of external finance on firm employment.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor Demand --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Financial Economics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Job creation --- Financial frictions --- Labor share --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Economic forecasting --- United States --- Income economics
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