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International Spillover of Labor Market Reforms
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ISBN: 145191427X 1462346723 1451869738 1282840673 9786612840678 1452750092 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/113 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses a dynamic economy model, with unionized labor markets, to analyze the effects of labor market reforms, similar to those recently introduced in Germany, on the domestic and trading partner economies. The model is calibrated on Germany and the rest of the Euro area. The results indicate that German labor market reforms have positive spillover effects on the rest of the Euro area, which operate through the channel of trade, relative price adjustment, and financial market integration. Compared to a competitive labor market, setting, unionization dampens the positive response of the domestic economy and magnifies the spillover effects.


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Wealth Inequality and Private Savings: The Case of Germany
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores the interaction between corporate ownership concentration and private savings, and by extension, the current account balance in Germany. As high corporate savings largely reflected capital income accruing to wealthy households and increasingly retained in closely-held firms, the buildup of external imbalances in Germany has been accompanied by widening top income inequality, rising private savings and compressed consumption rates. Rising corporate profits in an environment of high business wealth concentration account for 90 percent of the rise in the private savings rate and a third of the increase in the German current account surplus over 1999–2016.


Book
Wealth Inequality and Private Savings: The Case of Germany
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ISBN: 1513549529 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper explores the interaction between corporate ownership concentration and private savings, and by extension, the current account balance in Germany. As high corporate savings largely reflected capital income accruing to wealthy households and increasingly retained in closely-held firms, the buildup of external imbalances in Germany has been accompanied by widening top income inequality, rising private savings and compressed consumption rates. Rising corporate profits in an environment of high business wealth concentration account for 90 percent of the rise in the private savings rate and a third of the increase in the German current account surplus over 1999–2016.


Book
The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455273481 1455271462 1283570106 9786613882554 1455270466 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We examine the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral and regional employment in China from 1980 to 2008. In contrast to theoretical predictions, employment in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors contracts following a real appreciation. Our results are robust across different sub-samples, levels of sectoral disaggregation, and are more pronounced for regions with higher export exposure. We attribute our findings to the importance of services as intermediate input in exportable production. We test this channel of exchange rate transmission using regional input-output tables linked with employment data at the region-sector level. The results of this paper have important implications for China's labor market adjustment should the Chinese RMB strengthen in the future. To mitigate the costs of short-run labor market adjustment, appropriate demand management and structural reforms in the non-traded sectors should play an important role.


Book
The Human Cost of Recessions : Assessing It, Reducing It
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ISBN: 1455227013 1462384854 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007–09. We assess the human cost of increased unemployment by surveying what is known about the effects of past recessions. If past is prologue, the cost to the unemployed (and society) could be high. The focus of this paper is on advanced economies. To their credit, most countries mounted strong policy responses to minimize the human costs, and the policy actions were notable also for their consistency and coherence across countries.


Book
The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends
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ISBN: 1484390318 1484390296 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Using cross-country national accounts and firm-level data, we document a broad-based trend in rising gross saving and net lending of non-financial corporates across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, though most pronounced in countries with persistent current account surpluses. We find that this trend holds consistently across major industries, and is concentrated among large firms, driven by rising profitability, lower financing costs, and reduced tax rates. At the same time, higher gross corporate saving have not supported a commensurate increase in fixed capital investment, but instead led to a build-up of liquid financial assets (cash). The determinants of corporate cash holding and saving are also broad-based across countries, with the growth in assets of large firms, R&D intensity, and lower effective tax rates accounting for most of the increase over the last 15 years.


Book
Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account
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ISBN: 1484390393 1484390369 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving and the current account over the long-run, we also study how these might be affected by differences in the coverage and sustainability of old-age transfer schemes. The model predicts that population structure and life expectancy (which affects the need to save to meet old age consumption) affect current account levels, and that while countries with more generous unfunded transfer schemes tend to have lower saving and more capital inflows over the long-run, this effect may be dampened by natural limits (on taxation) of these schemes. The key predictions of the model are generally supported by a rich panel dataset.


Book
The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States
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ISBN: 1513598309 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of the labor demand shock and instrument KA take-up using the pre-existing, state-specific share of workers eligible for KA. We find, first, that KA was crucial in mitigating unemployment: absent its expansion the unemployment rate would have increased by an additional 3 pp on average at the trough of the recession. Second, KA also bolstered domestic demand: the contraction in consumption could have been 2 to 3 times larger absent the program. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence on the sensitivity of the medium-run reallocation of resources to the prevalence of jobretention schemes during the Global Financial Crisis.


Book
Post-pandemic Productivity Dynamics in the United States
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ISBN: 9798400280603 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We study U.S. labor productivity growth and its drivers since the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor productivity experienced large swings since 2020, due to both compositional and within-industry effects, but has since returned to its pre-pandemic trend. Industry-level panel regressions show that measures of labor market churn are associated with higher productivity growth both in the cross-section and over time. Sectors with higher investment in digitalization, particularly in teleworkable industries, also experience higher productivity growth on average. There has also been an increase in business formation since the pandemic, but its impact on productivity dynamics will likely need more time to be reflected in the data.


Book
Finance and Employment in Developing Countries: The Working Capital Channel
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ISBN: 1484316525 1484316479 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We study the effect of external financing constraint on job creation in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDC) at the firm level by looking at a specific transmission channel - the working capital channel. We develop a simple model to illustrate how the need for working capital financing of a firm affects the link between financial constraint and the firm's job creation. We show that the effect of relaxing financial constraint on job creation is greater the smaller the firm scale and the more labor-intensive its production structure. We use the World Bank Enterprise Surveys data to test the main predictions of the model, and find strong evidence for the working capital channel of external finance on firm employment.

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