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Bayesian Model Averaging techniques are used to analyse how robustly it is possible to identify factors that may lead to the bursting of asset price bubbles in OECD economies. A large set of variables put forward in the literature is assessed, as well as interactions of these variables with estimates of asset price misalignments to evaluate the importance of the different channels postulated by theory. The results indicate that asset price misalignments are not robust determinants of house price reversals unless their interaction with other characteristics of the economy (credit growth, population growth and interest rate developments) is taken into account. On the other hand, stock price reversals are affected by misalignments, as well as other real and monetary variables. Out-of-sample prediction exercises provide evidence that dealing explicitly with model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging techniques leads to better forecasts of reversals in asset prices than relying on model selection. Conclusions regarding the importance of dealing quantitatively with model uncertainty are drawn to improve the anticipation of asset price reversals.

Economics

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Using a unique dataset comprising information for more than 900 firms in the machine building sector in Belarus, this paper investigates the determinants of firm growth for an economy where state ownership of enterprises is widespread. It uses panel data models based on generalizations of Gibrat's law, total factor productivity estimates and matching methods to assess the differences in firm growth between private and state-owned firms. The results indicate that labor hoarding and soft budget constraints play a particularly important role in explaining differences in performance between these two groups of firms.

Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Firm growth --- Firm profitability --- Gibrat's law --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Machine building industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microfinance --- Poverty Reduction --- State enterprise sector

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This paper uses model averaging techniques to identify robust predictors of sovereign default episodes on a pooled database for 46 emerging economies over the period 1980-2004. Sovereign default episodes are defined according to Standard and Poor's or by non-concessional International Monetary Fund loans in excess of 100 percent of the country's quota. The authors find that, in addition to the level of indebtedness, the quality of policies and institutions is the best predictor of default episodes in emerging market countries with relatively low levels of external debt. For emerging market countries with a higher level of debt, macroeconomic stability plays a robust role in explaining differences in default probabilities. The paper provides evidence that model averaging can improve out-of-sample prediction of sovereign defaults, and draws policy conclusions for the current crisis based on the results.

Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt management --- Debt Markets --- Default probabilities --- Developing country --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging economies --- Emerging market --- Emerging market countries --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign financing --- Indebtedness --- International bank --- International Economics and Trade --- Level of debt --- Macroeconomic stability --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary fund --- Reserves --- Sovereign debt --- Sovereign default --- Sovereign defaults

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This paper investigates the drivers of growth and prosperity in a group of eleven European countries-Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia (the EU11). Since the EU11 began the transformation process, this group of emerging countries has made impressive strides as developing market economies and is anchoring development in European Union institutions. There are reasons to believe that the convergence of EU11 income per capita to Western European levels will continue, but will proceed more slowly. The paper concludes that trade and financial integration have sped along at a spectacular pace in the EU11 in the recent past, although trade in modern services and the integration of government bond and equity markets are somewhat behind. As in the rest of Europe, demographic developments will pose huge challenges for the sustainability of public finance in the EU11 economies. In the next several decades, the EU11 labor force is expected to contract more than labor forces in the rest of the European Union, making it even more urgent that countries in the region reform pension systems, change migration policy, and find incentives to attract talent to the region. Closing the gap with the rest of the European Union in educational attainment levels and improving education quality might significantly soften the constraints imposed by the demographic threats and produce sizable returns in terms of additional income convergence.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Equity markets --- Government bond --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration policy --- Pension systems --- Poverty Reduction --- Transformation process