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This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the non-tradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.

Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Asia --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Production and Operations Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Finance --- Productivity --- Trade balance --- Total factor productivity --- Terms of trade --- Real interest rates --- Industrial productivity --- Balance of trade --- nternational cooperation --- Interest rates --- United States --- Nternational cooperation

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This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global trade imbalances. Simulation results based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, and using the EU KLEMS database, indicate that TFP developments in these economies can account for a significant fraction of the total deterioration in the U.S. trade balance since 1999, as well as account for some the surpluses in the euro area and Japan. Differences in TFP developments across sectors can also partially explain the evolution of the real effective value of the U.S. dollar during this period.

Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Production (Economic theory) --- Economic development. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Microeconomics --- Supply and demand --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Supply-side economics --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Total factor productivity --- Trade balance --- Productivity --- Real effective exchange rates --- Trade deficits --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Balance of trade --- United States

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Zonder onderwerpscode: financiewezen