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This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.

Intelligence service --- Terrorism --- Bombings --- Evaluation --- Prevention --- Bombings. --- Evaluation. --- Prevention. --- Intelligence service -- United States -- Evaluation. --- Interagency coordination -- United States. --- Military intelligence -- United States -- Evaluation. --- Terrorism -- Prevention -- Government policy -- United States. --- Terrorism -- Prevention. --- Military Administration --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Bomb attacks --- Terrorist bombings --- Offenses against public safety --- Political crimes and offenses --- Political violence --- Bombs --- Anti-terrorism --- Antiterrorism --- Counter-terrorism --- Counterterrorism --- Intelligence service - United States - Evaluation --- Terrorism - Prevention

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Corporate finance --- Corporations --- Finance --- Sociétés --- Finances --- -Finance --- 658.14 --- 658.15 --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Financing. Funding of enterprises. Raising of capital --- Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- 658.15 Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- 658.14 Financing. Funding of enterprises. Raising of capital --- Sociétés --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Corporations - Finance

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Corporate finance --- Corporations --- Finance --- Sociétés --- Finances --- 658.147 --- -658.15 --- 658.15 --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Own capital. Share capital --- Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- 658.15 Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- 658.147 Own capital. Share capital --- Sociétés --- 658.155 --- Profit. Loss. Earning power. Trends in profitability. Yield. Trading profit, return --- 658.155 Profit. Loss. Earning power. Trends in profitability. Yield. Trading profit, return --- 658.14 --- 658.14 Financing. Funding of enterprises. Raising of capital --- Financing. Funding of enterprises. Raising of capital --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Corporations - Finance

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AA / International- internationaal --- BE / Belgium - België - Belgique --- 658.147 --- 658.40 --- 333.600 --- Corporations --- -Finance --- 658.41 --- 658.15 --- 338.03 --- 339.312.2 --- 000.1 --- 658.45 --- 658.14 --- 338.041 --- 658.147 Own capital. Share capital --- Own capital. Share capital --- 658.15 Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- Funding --- Funds --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Financieel beheer van de bedrijven: algemeenheden. --- Financiële markten. Kapitaalmarkten (algemeenheden). --- Finance --- Herkomst van het kapitaal der bedrijven. --- Kapitaal. --- Maatstaven voor de beslissingen van investeringen. --- Algemene werken --- Reserves van vennootschappen. Dividenden. Zelffinanciering. Cash flow. --- Bedrijfsfinanciering --- Theorie van de winst. Risico's. Sterfelijkheid van ondernemingen. Afdanking van werknemers. Sluiting. Bedrijfssanering. --- Economics --- Currency question --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate finance --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Financiële markten. Kapitaalmarkten (algemeenheden) --- Kapitaal --- Theorie van de winst. Risico's. Sterfelijkheid van ondernemingen. Afdanking van werknemers. Sluiting. Bedrijfssanering --- Maatstaven voor de beslissingen van investeringen --- Financieel beheer van de bedrijven: algemeenheden --- Herkomst van het kapitaal der bedrijven --- Reserves van vennootschappen. Dividenden. Zelffinanciering. Cash flow --- Finance. --- Corporations - Finance

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Corporations --- Valuation --- Handbooks, manuals, etc. --- Corporations - Valuation - Handbooks, manuals, etc. --- Corporations - Valuation --- Sociétés --- Handbooks, manuals, etc --- Evaluation --- Guides, manuels, etc --- 658.15 --- 657.6 --- 657.6 Official verification of accounts. Auditing --- Official verification of accounts. Auditing --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- 657.62 --- 657.62 Analysis and verification of balance-sheets --- Analysis and verification of balance-sheets